Định Mệnh Chiến Tranh - Mỹ Và Trung Quốc Có Thể Thoát Bẫy

["qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 h\u00f9ng m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 s\u1edf h\u1eefu \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n th\u1ee9 v\u0169 kh\u00ed mang t\u00ednh h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t nh\u1ea5t con ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1eebng ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o: bom nguy\u00ean t\u1eed. Tuy nhi\u00ean, b\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 s\u1edbm b\u1ecb th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c b\u1edfi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed3ng minh trong Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II, Li\u00ean X\u00f4. Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i nh\u1ea5t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed trong vi\u1ec7c tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi B\u1eaby Thucydides. B\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n c\u1ea1nh tranh kh\u00f4ng bao g\u1ed3m xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u0169 trang c\u1ea3 hai c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro cao nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh. Sau khi gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u kh\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 cai tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c Qu\u1ed1c x\u00e3 v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3, Li\u00ean X\u00f4 c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t v\u00f9ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed5 n\u00e1t \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u khi Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5. Tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 quan ch\u1ee9c t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c \u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n m\u1edbi, \u0111\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1eb1ng sau c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p gi\u1edbi b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u00ednh ki\u1ebfn, Li\u00ean X\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ebf ch\u1ebf tr\u1ea3i d\u00e0i t\u1edbi mi\u1ec1n Trung n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0, theo l\u1eddi Churchill, t\u1eeb \u201cStettin \u1edf Baltic cho t\u1edbi Trieste \u1edf Adriatic, m\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c m\u00e0n s\u1eaft\u2026 s\u1eadp xu\u1ed1ng l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba\u201d. Nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch M\u1ef9 s\u1edbm nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean X\u00d4, nh\u01b0 s\u1eed gia John Gaddis \u0111\u00e3 vi\u1ebft, \u201ckh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u00e1n c\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb tri\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u00e2u l\u1ee5c nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 Hitler \u0111\u00e3 mong mu\u1ed1n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n\u201d. V\u1edbi m\u1ed9t v\u1ecb th\u1ebf bao tr\u00f9m \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, Stalin c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng lan truy\u1ec1n ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng ra to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Ch\u00edn th\u00e1ng sau Ng\u00e0y Chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng, B\u1ee9c \u0110i\u1ec7n t\u00edn D\u00e0i c\u1ee7a George Kennan v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 1946 - theo sau l\u00e0 ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 B\u1ee9c m\u00e0n S\u1eaft c\u1ee7a Winston Churchill ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea7y hai tu\u1ea7n sau \u0111\u00f3 - \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Li\u00ean X\u00f4 l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda mang t\u00ednh s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y. B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n James Forrestal \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch M\u1ef9 khi \u00f4ng vi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Li\u00ean X\u00f4 \u201ckh\u00f4ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a qu\u1ed1c x\u00e3 hay ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a ph\u00e1t x\u00edt b\u1edfi v\u00ec n\u00f3 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t v\u0169 l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch\u201d. Cho t\u1edbi n\u0103m 1949, Li\u00ean X\u00f4 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00f3a b\u1ecf th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n v\u1ec1 h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 b\u1eb1ng v\u1ee5 th\u1eed bom nguy\u00ean t\u1eed c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang m\u00ecnh. T\u00e1m n\u0103m https:\/\/thuviensach.vn","sau, Li\u00ean X\u00f4 ph\u00f3ng v\u1ec7 tinh Sputnik, v\u1ec7 tinh nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00f3ng l\u00ean v\u0169 tr\u1ee5, gi\u00e1ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00f2n m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o \u01b0u th\u1ebf khoa h\u1ecdc c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Li\u00ean X\u00f4 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c. S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p gia t\u0103ng 173% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1950 so v\u1edbi th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf h\u1eb1ng n\u0103m (\u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 theo th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c) trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng 7% t\u1eeb 1950 t\u1edbi 1970, t\u1ea1o ra n\u1ed7i s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i r\u1eb1ng Li\u00ean X\u00f4 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh hay th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t kinh t\u1ebf*. Cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o khoa kinh t\u1ebf b\u00e1n ch\u1ea1y nh\u1ea5t th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1960 c\u1ee7a Paul Samuelson, Economics: An Introductory, d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng GNP c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean X\u00f4 s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua M\u1ef9 v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1980. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Samuelson kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c, nh\u01b0ng Li\u00ean X\u00f4 tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua M\u1ef9 trong hai l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c quan tr\u1ecdng: chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1eaft th\u00e9p \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1970. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n chi\u1ebfn tranh truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng ch\u1ec9 tr\u1eeb bom v\u00e0 s\u00fang \u0111\u1ea1n, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n phi truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng. Cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh*. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng hi\u1ec3m ngh\u00e8o (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng T\u00ean l\u1eeda Cuba) v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m (\u1edf Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean, Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Afghanistan v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01a1i kh\u00e1c), xung \u0111\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng khai gi\u1eefa l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i hai n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra*. C\u00e1c s\u1eed gia \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi cho c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi t\u1ea1i sao Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u201cn\u00f3ng\u201d. H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda t\u1eeb b\u00f3ng ma h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, trong khi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh t\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd xa x\u00f4i gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Li\u00ean X\u00f4, hay s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh do th\u00e1m gi\u00fap t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u h\u00f3a kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u l\u1ea7m nguy hi\u1ec3m. Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra vi\u1ec7c c\u1ea3 hai qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f9ng nhau c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c c\u1ea1nh tranh cho ph\u00e9p h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng l\u1eabn nhau b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng h\u00ecnh th\u00e1i chi\u1ebfn tranh tr\u1eeb xung \u0111\u1ed9t tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp. M\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c n\u1eefa cho ph\u00e9p hai c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi chi\u1ebfn tranh ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 v\u0103n h\u00f3a h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n xung quanh v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1eb1ng hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc SALT n\u0103m 1972 v\u00e0 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec9nh cao v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh gi\u1eefa Reagan v\u00e0 Gorbachev v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1980. Nh\u1eefng h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh n\u00e0y https:\/\/thuviensach.vn","kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro tai n\u1ea1n h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng n\u00ean n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a l\u00f2ng tin. V\u00e0o \u0111\u00fang th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 - m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec trong v\u00f2ng b\u1ed1n th\u1eadp ni\u00ean - \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. S\u1ef1 tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eefa m\u1ed9t b\u00ean l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 b\u00ean kia l\u00e0 m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i b\u00ean trong nh\u1eefng ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i ch\u1ec9 huy v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ee5c kho\u00e9t ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u1edf Li\u00ean X\u00f4 trong h\u00e0ng th\u1eadp ni\u00ean. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cung c\u1ea5p c\u1ea3 s\u00fang \u0111\u1ea1n l\u1eabn b\u01a1, Li\u00ean X\u00f4 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1991, v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh cu\u1ed1i th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 XX n\u00e0y k\u1ebft th\u00fac m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y \u0111\u1ed5 m\u00e1u. 16. Anh v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u \u0110\u1ee9c Th\u1eddi gian: Th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1990 cho t\u1edbi nay C\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb: Anh v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p C\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady: \u0110\u1ee9c L\u0129nh v\u1ef1c c\u1ea1nh tranh: \u1ea2nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3: Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 chi\u1ebfn tranh Khi Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh k\u1ebft th\u00fac, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u1ee9c th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t s\u1ebd quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i tham v\u1ecdng b\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n c\u0169 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00fang khi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1eb5n \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn l\u00e0 \u00f4n ho\u00e0. Nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c B\u1eaby Thucydides \u0111\u00e3 \u00e1m \u1ea3nh \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ecd nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, c\u00e1c l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm ra m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c m\u1edbi nh\u1eb1m th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng: \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 kinh t\u1ebf mang t\u00ednh h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp thay v\u00ec th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. Khi Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng T\u00e2y \u0110\u1ee9c Helmut Kohl \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp t\u1edbi v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh k\u1ebft th\u00fac, c\u00e1c l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Anh v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p - nh\u1eefng c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1eddi \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u - \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i quy\u1ebft li\u1ec7t vi\u1ec5n c\u1ea3nh xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u1ee9c h\u00f9ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1edbi. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia, s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n chia n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p l\u00e2u d\u00e0i cho \u201cv\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0110\u1ee9c\u201d v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5 c\u1ee7a hai cu\u1ed9c th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn. Ba nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a NATO \u1edf https:\/\/thuviensach.vn","ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eafc \u0111i nh\u1eafc l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ch\u00e2m bi\u1ebfm l\u00e0 \u201cgi\u1eef cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nga \u1edf ngo\u00e0i, ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 \u1edf trong v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0110\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ng\u00f3c \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c\u201d. N\u1ed7i lo l\u1eafng c\u1ee7a Anh v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p c\u0169ng d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u: m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u1ee9c th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t s\u1ebd l\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t T\u00e2y \u00c2u v\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf. V\u1edbi quan \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, \u0110\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 Ph\u00e1p t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ee9c kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1989 r\u1eb1ng th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t \u201cs\u1ebd sinh ra m\u1ed9t ch\u00e2u \u00c2u b\u1ecb \u0110\u1ee9c th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb, \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t ai c\u1ea3 \u1edf ph\u00eda \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 ph\u00eda T\u00e2y mong mu\u1ed1n\u201d. Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Margaret Thatcher \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ed1i lo ng\u1ea1i \u0111i xa h\u01a1n, khi b\u00e0 n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n ri\u00eang v\u1edbi T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng George H. W. Bush v\u1ec1 n\u1ed7i s\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, r\u1eb1ng \u201cnh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 Hitler kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00f4ng qua chi\u1ebfn tranh, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0110\u1ee9c s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh\u201d. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda ti\u1ec1m t\u00e0ng n\u00e0y, Thatcher v\u00e0 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Ph\u00e1p Francois Mitterrand \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p nh\u1eb1m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean minh gi\u1eefa Anh v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, Mitterand \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u201cm\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n v\u1edbi Anh nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed1i tr\u1ecdng\u201d. Theo c\u1ef1u quan ch\u1ee9c ngo\u1ea1i giao ki\u00eam h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 Philip Zelikow v\u00e0 c\u1ef1u Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng M\u1ef9 Condoleeza Rice, \u201cng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ph\u00e1p, tin r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i sinh n\u00e0o c\u1ee7a s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh \u0110\u1ee9c s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap gi\u1eef cho n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn Ph\u00e1p\u201d. Nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, \u0110\u1ee9c th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn m\u00ecnh tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ti\u1ebfng n\u00f3i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c n\u1eb7ng nh\u1ea5t ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, l\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ea7y kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i sau s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean X\u00f4. Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u1eadt \u0111\u00e1ng kinh ng\u1ea1c, qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00e1i tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n ra m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh cho t\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. V\u00e0 theo th\u1eddi gian, n\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Anh v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p. V\u1eady th\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o? Nh\u01b0 Henry Kissinger nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t: \u201c70 n\u0103m sau khi \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i y\u00eau s\u00e1ch b\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c, nh\u1eefng k\u1ebb chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng nay l\u1ea1i \u0111ang l\u1ea1y l\u1ee5c van n\u00e0i \u0110\u1ee9c d\u1eabn d\u1eaft ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu b\u1edfi c\u00e1c l\u00fd do kinh t\u1ebf.\u201d S\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1ed9ng m\u1edf c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y nh\u1eb1m xoa d\u1ecbu nghi ng\u1edd c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, th\u00f4ng qua nh\u1eefng c\u1eed ch\u1ec9 thi\u1ec7n ch\u00ed c\u00f4ng khai v\u00e0 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1eabn nhau v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u1ef1u https:\/\/thuviensach.vn","th\u00f9. Quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3, c\u00e1c l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 s\u00e1ng su\u1ed1t trong vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u00edch v\u1edbi s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia. H\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i m\u1edbi n\u00e0y tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng khi \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf, tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i th\u1ed1ng l\u0129nh c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng chung \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u c\u00f3 tr\u1ee5 s\u1edf \u1edf Frankfurt. Nh\u01b0 c\u1ef1u B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng B\u1ed9 Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i Anh Stephen Green \u0111\u00e3 chia s\u1ebb, \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu v\u00e0o n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00ean kinh t\u1ebf ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u: \u201c\u0110\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng s\u1eb5n l\u00f2ng \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Anh v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ph\u00e1p xem l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean\u201d. M\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp, nh\u01b0 h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf Helga Haftendorn \u0111\u00e3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3, \u201cc\u00f3 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c, b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i nh\u1eefng th\u1ee9 tr\u00ean v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t ch\u00e2u \u00c2u m\u1edbi, t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t \u2018n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u1ee9c ch\u00e2u \u00c2u h\u00f3a\u2019, thay v\u00ec l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u2018ch\u00e2u \u00c2u c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0110\u1ee9c\u201d\u2019. D\u0129 nhi\u00ean, c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh theo \u0111u\u1ed5i h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c di\u1ec5n ra tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t*. Th\u00eam v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1eeb b\u1ecf m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u00edch v\u1edbi s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o an ninh khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. D\u00f9 v\u1eady, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 g\u00ec, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c tr\u1ea5n an nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u0169, th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mi\u00eau t\u1ea3 b\u1edfi nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch Hans Kundnani trong The Paradox of German Power (Ngh\u1ecbch l\u00fd s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh \u0110\u1ee9c) nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201ch\u1ed7n h\u1ee3p k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1 bao g\u1ed3m s\u1ef1 quy\u1ebft \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu v\u1eafng v\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1\u2026 Theo ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, \u0110\u1ee9c l\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia \u00f4n h\u00f2a\u201d. G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n g\u00e2y ra do h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng t\u1ecb n\u1ea1n v\u00e0 di c\u01b0 cho\u00e1ng ng\u1ee3p t\u1edbi t\u1eeb Syria v\u00e0 Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i - c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u https:\/\/thuviensach.vn","\u00c2u l\u00e0 nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p t\u00ednh b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed li\u00ean quan t\u1edbi s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf ch\u00e2u l\u1ee5c, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m chuy\u1ec3n giao quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u00e3 cho ch\u00fang ta th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc mang t\u00ednh b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u00e0 quan tr\u1ecdng cho nh\u1eefng c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 mong mu\u1ed1n tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi B\u1eaby Thucydides. \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ecdc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1eb1ng, gia t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng g\u00e2y ra xung \u0111\u1ed9t, v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u1eed ch\u1ec9 thi\u1ec7n ch\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra li\u00ean t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua n\u1ed7i s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i \u0103n s\u00e2u b\u00e1m r\u1ec5 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7. Th\u00f4ng qua \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, c\u1edfi m\u1edf, h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u1ef1u th\u00f9 v\u00e0 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng b\u1ecf qua nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c bi\u1ec3u d\u01b0\u01a1ng quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng, \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng tho\u00e1t ra kh\u1ecfi B\u1eaby Thucydides cho t\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. https:\/\/thuviensach.vn","PH\u1ee4 L\u1ee4C 2 B\u1ea2Y B\u00d9 NH\u00ccN R\u01a0M Trong tranh lu\u1eadn h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt, c\u00e1c h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 th\u01b0\u1eddng chu\u1ed9ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ng\u1ee5y bi\u1ec7n b\u00f9 nh\u00ecn r\u01a1m thay v\u00ec th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c m\u1ed9t lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y r\u1ea5t \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n: t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t con b\u00f9 nh\u00ecn r\u01a1m, \u0111\u1ed1t n\u00f3, v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00f3i t\u1edbi. \u0110\u00e1p l\u1ea1i b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y \u0111\u0103ng tr\u00ean t\u1edd Atlantic v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2015, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00ea b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1eb7p \u0111i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i b\u1ea3y b\u00f9 nh\u00ecn r\u01a1m sau. 1. T\u00ednh t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu (inevitability): B\u1eaby Thucydides cho r\u1eb1ng chi\u1ebfn tranh gi\u1eefa m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu. Nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft tr\u00ean Atlantic v\u00e0 trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y, B\u1eaby Thucydides kh\u00f4ng kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, 4 trong s\u1ed1 16 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p trong H\u1ed3 s\u01a1 (Xem ph\u1ee5 l\u1ee5c 1) kh\u00f4ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfn tranh. Th\u00eam v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 l\u01b0u \u00fd, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed trong L\u1ecbch s\u1eed Chi\u1ebfn tranh Peloponnese, vi\u1ec7c Thucydides s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1eeb \u201ct\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu\u201d r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng mang h\u00e0m \u00fd c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i\u1ec7u. 2. \u0110i\u1ec3m t\u1edbi h\u1ea1n, d\u00e2y b\u1eaby hay b\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t (tipping points, tripwires, or turning points): N\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn tranh kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1edbi h\u1ea1n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 trong su\u1ed1t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n giao quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c - th\u00ec Thucydides \u0111\u00e3 sai. Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a B\u1eaby Thucydides kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp t\u1edbi kho\u1ea3nh kh\u1eafc m\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t. C\u01a1 ch\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Thucydides xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n trong su\u1ed1t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady, \u1edf \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng v\u00e0 sau khi m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i. 3. L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn thi\u00ean v\u1ecb: B\u1eaby Thucydides \u0111\u00e3 m\u1eafc l\u1ed7i trong vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u sao cho ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn. N\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p d\u1eabn t\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn tranh. https:\/\/thuviensach.vn","H\u1ed3 s\u01a1 bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng v\u00ed d\u1ee5 m\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, trong \u0111\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady \u0111e d\u1ecda thay th\u1ebf m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb. B\u1edfi v\u00ec h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p (thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n), n\u00f3 mi\u1ec5n nhi\u1ec5m v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00e1o bu\u1ed9c li\u00ean quan t\u1edbi l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn thi\u00ean v\u1ecb. V\u1ec1 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn chi ti\u1ebft li\u00ean quan t\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a B\u1eaby Thucydides, xem http:\/\/belfercenter.org\/ thucydides-trap\/thucydides-trap- methology. 4. C\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p b\u1ecb thi\u1ebfu: H\u1ed3 s\u01a1 c\u00e1c Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p B\u1eaby Thucydides ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7. H\u1ed3 s\u01a1 c\u00e1c Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p B\u1eaby Thucydides l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 m\u1edf. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 H\u1ed3 s\u01a1 c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft tr\u00ean Atlantic v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2015, trang web c\u1ee7a D\u1ef1 \u00e1n B\u1eaby Thucydides \u0111\u00e3 m\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed9c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t th\u00eam nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ch\u00ednh, hay t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian kh\u00e1c. L\u00fd do cho \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t n\u00e0y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem x\u00e9t, k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e0ng thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c, v\u00ec nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o th\u00eam c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft li\u00ean quan t\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1eefa c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t, \u0111\u1ed9c gi\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 truy c\u1eadp http:\/\/belfercenter.org\/thucydides-trap\/case-file. 5. C\u01a1 s\u1edf d\u1eef li\u1ec7u qu\u00e1 nh\u1ecf: H\u1ed3 s\u01a1 c\u00e1c Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p B\u1eaby Thucydides \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c d\u1eef ki\u1ec7n qu\u00e1 nh\u1ecf \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ee9ng minh th\u00e0nh quy lu\u1eadt hay mang t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n, hay \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u1ebfu mu\u1ed1n. \u0110\u1ed3ng \u00fd. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng - ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t ra m\u1ed9t quy lu\u1eadt hay t\u1ea1o ra d\u1eef li\u1ec7u cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea. 6. Th\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng c\u00f2n v\u1ec1 c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi\u2026: C\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n v\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 trong h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 \u201cph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u\u201d. D\u0129 nhi\u00ean: ch\u00fang lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. https:\/\/thuviensach.vn","7. T\u00ednh nguy\u00ean b\u1ea3n: Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 B\u1eaby Thucydides kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean b\u1ea3n. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, vi\u1ec7c kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 B\u1eaby Thucydides cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean. Nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0u \u00fd tr\u00ean trang web, trong su\u1ed1t h\u00e0ng th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi Thucydides ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, c\u00e1c h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p v\u00e0o hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c mang t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t b\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n. https:\/\/thuviensach.vn","Table of Contents L\u1eddi gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u L\u1eddi n\u00f3i \u0111\u1ea7u D\u1eabn nh\u1eadp S\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c 01. \u201cC\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi\u201d Nh\u1eefng b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc t\u1eeb l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 02. Athens v\u00e0 Sparta 03. N\u0103m tr\u0103m n\u0103m 04. Anh \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi \u0110\u1ee9c C\u01a1n b\u00e3o s\u1eafp t\u1edbi 05. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta 06. Nh\u1eefng th\u1ee9 m\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh mong mu\u1ed1n 07. S\u1ef1 va ch\u1ea1m gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n v\u0103n minh 08. T\u1eeb gi\u1edd cho t\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn T\u1ea1i sao chi\u1ebfn tranh kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu 09. 12 b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh 10. T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o? K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn L\u1eddi c\u1ea3m \u01a1n Ph\u1ee5 l\u1ee5c 1. H\u1ed3 s\u01a1 c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p b\u1eaby Thucydides Ph\u1ee5 l\u1ee5c 2. B\u1ea3y b\u00f9 nh\u00ecn r\u01a1m https:\/\/thuviensach.vn"]