SustainingMalaysia’sFutureThe Mega Science Agenda Agriculture
A MEGA-SCIENCE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINED NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (2011 – 2050)
CONTENTSEpilogue … … … … … … … … … viiPreface … … … … … … … … … … xviiiExecutive Summary … … … … … … … … xxiList of Figures … … … … … … … … … xxvList of Tables … … … … … … … … … xxviiAbbreviations … … … … … … … … … xxviii1 Introduction … … … … … … … … … 1 1.1 Early Agriculture … … … … … … … 2 1.2 New Agriculture … … … … … … … 5 1.3 Sustainable Development … … … … … … 6 1.4 Cycle-loop Production Systems … … … … … 7 1.5 Wellness … … … … … … … … 7 1.6 Mega Science Framework … … … … … … 82 Study Approach and Methodology … … … … … … 10 102.1 Appointment of Consultants in the Appropriate Area of Expertise ... 102.2 Interviews with Key Officials in the Various Subsectors … … 102.3 Reference to Key Journals, Websites and Other Publications … … 10 … 102.4 Brainstorming Seminars among Members of the Working Group …2.5 Workshop with Stakeholders …………3 Status of Agriculture … … … … … … … … 113.1 Evolution and Paradigm Shifts towards Sustainable and Inclusive Agriculture 11 i) Natural History and Evolution from Hunting-Gathering to Farming 11 ii) Agricultural Footprints of Past Civilizations in the Tropics … 163.2 The Rise, Fall and Rise Again of Agriculture … … … 18 i) Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) … … … … … 223.3 Crops … … … … … … … … 323.4 Livestock … … … … … … … … 39 i) The Livestock Industry Today – Malaysia and the world … 39 ii) Science, Technology and Innovation Contribution… … … 50 iii) Domestic Germplasms … … … … … 52 iv) R&D investment … … … … … … 53 v) Future Trend in Livestock Industry … … … … 563.5 Fishery and Aquaculture … … … … … … 633.6 Agroforestry … … … … … … … 65 i) Traditional Agroforestry Practices … … … … 66 ii) Conventional Agroforestry Practices … … … … 683.7 Precision Farming … … … … … … … 753.8 Food and nutrition situation … … … … … … 78 i) Socio-demographic changes … … … … … 78 ii) Data on nutritional status of population groups … … 78 iii) Nutritional status of children … … … … 79 iv) Nutritional status of adults … … … … … 83 v) Micronutrient deficiencies … … … … … 86 vi) Infant and young child feeding pattern … … … 87 vii) Changes in food consumption pattern … … … 88 viii) Non-communicable diseases related to lifestyle … … 93 iii
4 Challenges Posed by Megatrends … … … … … … 954.1 Population Increase … … … … … … 954.2 Diminishing Arable Land … … … … … … 954.3 Depleting Resources … … … … … … 984.4 Climate Change … … … … … … … 994.5 Loss of Connectedness of the Ecoweb … … … … 1014.6 Water … … … … … … … … 106i) SRI Management Practices … … … … … 1114.7 Energy … … … … … … … … 1174.8 Health … … … … … … … … 1184.9 Biodiversity, Genomics and Genome Engineering … … … 1194.10 Monoculture Farming System … … … … … 1205 Growth opportunities and Science, Technology and Innovation needs … … 1235.1 Crops … … … … … … … … 123i) Perennial Crops … … … … … … 124ii) Fruit crops … … … … … … … 127iii) Vegetables and Herbs … … … … … 127iv) Ornamental and Other Plants … … … … … 128v) Energy Crops … … … … … … 128vi) Agroforestry … … … … … … 128vii) Agrisilviculture … … … … … … 131viii) Silvipastoral … … … … … … 132ix) Home-garden … … … … … … 136x) Community Forestry and Rare Fruit Reserve … … … 138xi) Perennial Crops and Biodiversity … … … … 1395.2 Livestock … … … … … … … … 141i) Poultry … … … … … … … 141ii) Swine … … … … … … … 145iii) Ruminants … … … … … … … 147iv) Other Livestock and Wildlife Species … … … 152v) Livestock and the Environment … … … … 153vi) Animal Welfare … … … … … … 1575.3 Trans-Global Tropical Agriculture … … … … … 1595.4 Agro biotechnology … … … … … … 1615.5 Controlled-Environment Agriculture System … … … 1655.6 Precision Agriculture … … … … … … 167i) Adoption Strategy … … … … … … 176ii) Barriers to adoption of precision farming … … … 177iii) Water Management … … … … … … 179iv) Future of Precision Farming … … … … … 1845.7 Agriculture and Human Nutrition … … … … … 185i) Bridging data gaps … … … … … … 1885.8 Future nutritional issues in Malaysia … … … … … 1885.9 Agriculture and Economics … … … … … … 1965.10 Sustainable Agriculture … … … … … … 2016 Supporting activities … … … … … … … … 203i) Development of Human Capital in Agriculture … … 203ii) Training of Future Farmers … … … … … 206iii) Extension Education … … … … … 207iv) Technology Transfer… … … … … … 210 iv
7 Current Policies … … … … … … … … 2137.1 Policies Pertaining To Development of Crops … … … 2137.2 Policy frame work in Livestock … … … … … 2157.3 Research Funds … … … … … … … 2178 Recommendations … … … … … … … … 2228.1 Biogeographical Transplant of species … … … … 2248.2 Plant Gene Technology … … … … … … 2278.3 Sustainable, Vertical and Urban Agriculture … … … … 2358.4 New Fishery and Aquaculture … … … … … 245 i) Marine Capture Fisheries … … … … … 246 ii) Aquaculture Fisheries … … … … … 246 iii) Inland Fisheries … … … … … … 247 iv) Aquarium Fish … … … … … … 247 v) Fish Processing and Handling … … … … 2478.5 Human Capital in Agriculture … … … … … 2488.6 Convivialism in Agriculture towards ASEAN 2015 … … … 2498.7 Water use Technology … … … … … … 2508.8 ICT as Enabler for Productivity in Agriculture … … … 2519 Milestones … … … … … … … … … 2559.1 Research Milestones … … … … … … 2559.2 Milestones from Crop, Livestock and Fishery Perspectives … … 2589.3 Logical Framework Analysis (LFA) … … … … … 27610 Conclusion … … … … … … … … … 28111 References … … … … … … … … … 28312 Appendix … … … … … … … … … 30512.1 Acknowledgments … … … … … … 30512.2 Members of Consultancy Team … … … … … 30613 Index … … … … … … … … … 307 v
EPILOGUE1. IntroductionScience has been universally touted as the main engine of economicgrowth and national development. Science from its Latin name„scienta‟ means knowledge. A knowledge-based economy is essentiallya science-based economy. New knowledge i.e. “science” is generatedby undertaking research, experiments and strategic studies or R&D. R &D and strategic studies provide the means to fulfill market needs andfind solutions to various problems. The results and findings aredelivered in the form of new or enhanced knowledge, technology andproducts or services. This results in productive economic activitieswhich contribute to wealth creation and economic growth.Malaysia, as a country, should adopt the concept of a Mega-ScienceFramework as a comprehensive vehicle to drive the use of science,technology and innovation (STI) to contribute towards economicgrowth. Mega essentially means big, therefore the discipline of Mega-Science implies a pervasive (broad-based), intensive (in-depth), andextensive (long period of engagement) use of science or knowledge toproduce technologies, products and services for all sectors of theeconomy to derive economic growth and development. It also calls forextensive investment in research activities to enhance the knowledgebase for the targeted sectors. Since knowledge in marketing and financeis equally important in promoting the success of a commercial ventureas compared to technical needs, it is envisaged that the Mega-Scienceapproach will require research to be conducted both in non-technicalsectors as well as in traditional scientific sectors.2. A need for national knowledge generating mechanismAs we are aware, national economies are classified into 5 sectorsnamely: agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction and services(Table 1). Efforts to generate knowledge by establishing researchinstitutions and universities and centers of excellence to supportagricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors are well established.The construction and services sectors are also dependent on newknowledge and technology in order to progress and remain competitive. vii
R & D and strategic studies are also necessary to drive the developmentof these two sectors.Table 1 NATIONAL ECONOMIC SECTORS (% OF GDP)SECTOR 2010* 2015**SERVICES 58.5 61.1AGRICULTURE 7.6 6.6MINING 7.9 5.9MANUFACTURING 26.2 26.3CONSTRUCTION 3.2 2.9 Source:*Economic Report 2009/2010 (MoF) **RMK10 Report (EPU)The Mega-Science approach would emphasize the need to strengthen R & D and strategic studies tobe undertaken in these non- traditional sectors. For example, to enhance the development of thetourism industry (service sector), dedicated R&D and strategic studies should be undertaken togenerate new knowledge that will lead to the delivery of new tourism products, services andinnovative strategies which will improve competitiveness of the industry. Similarly, researchstudies, market surveys and financial models are proposed especially for the services sector as theknowledge created will fulfill a need or solve a problem which eventually will generate revenue andcontribute to economic growth. The Mega Science approach therefore identifies R&D and strategicstudies as the key enablers to economic growth in all targeted sectors of the economy.3. A need to invest sufficiently in knowledge creation: R & D and knowledge acquisitionTo become a high income developed economy, Malaysia as a country has to intensify knowledgegenerating capacity by investing in R&D and strategic studies. The expenditure in R & D mustreflect the norm usually associated with countries having a developed economy. While past viii
expenditure in R & D for Malaysia as a developing country has hovered at 0.5% of the nationalGDP, the present and future rate of spending should be increased to above 2.0% as benchmarkedagainst the rate of spending for countries with developed economies (Figure 1). Towards achievingthis goal, it is proposed that the Government formalize the rate of spending of 2% and abovethrough the promulgation of a Science and Technology Act (“S&T Act”), which is long overdue. Figure 1 Malaysia’s Low R&D InvestmentR&D needs a long lead time before beneficial results can be harnessed to contribute to the economythrough commercialization of research results and development of expertise (Figure 2). To fulfillthe need to have pervasive, intensive and extensive R&D activities and satisfy the long lead timeneeded for R&D to mature, bold up front investments in R&D spending will be necessary. Whilethis is financially difficult to reconcile, extensive and expensive upfront investment in R & D isnecessary and forms a critical dimension of the Mega-Science Framework approach. These longlead times from R&D to Commercialization are amply demonstrated in Malaysia in the rubber andpalm oil sectors of agriculture. In rubber, we took some 50 years to see Malaysia “topping theworld” in rubber technology since initiating R&D in rubber. Similarly, in palm oil, Malaysia tookabout 40 years to “top the world”. ix
Figure 2 Time Lag on Increase in HR and R&D Investments and the Resultant Key Indicators Stimulating Economic GrowthAlthough a certain amount of knowledge, technology and research inputs may be importedespecially through FDI activities, these are often out-dated or out-of-sync with business andeconomic needs. Therefore, the process of knowledge renewal and enhancement must continue tobe undertaken for the country to remain competitive.4. A need to manage knowledge generation and acquisition nationally through private and public sector participationThe Mega-Science Framework looks at national efforts in generating new knowledge and STIdeliverables. The country‟s science infrastructure must exist to help deliver the desired results. Thescience infrastructure should also ensure the evolution of more R&D to be undertaken by theprivate sector vis-à-vis the public sector as is typically found in a developed country economy.The present proposal to establish the National Research Council (NRC) and the National InnovationUnit (UNIK) should be encouraged as these provide the management function of ensuring thatfunding and management for R & D and strategic studies will be maximized. A significant role ofensuring the timely development and availability of STI deliverables for economic growth must beemphasized. In this respect, the role of MIGHT and other Technology Development Corporations intechnology foresight scoping, development and acquisition are highly crucial especially bearing in x
mind that some technologies can be obtained through offset programmes of governmentinternational tenders.5. Knowledge gaps in various economic sectorsIn the past, economic growth was a function of knowledge (technology) and capital accumulation.Past investments in R&D in the relevant sectors would have generated knowledge to stimulateeconomic growth. Continuous knowledge enhancement (training) or accumulation of human capitaldevelopment (expertise) adds to facilitate and accelerate economic growth. The serious lack ofresearchers in basic and applied sciences has to be urgently addressed such that it does not hamperthe generation of knowledge and hamper sustained economic growth of the nation (Figure 3).Future economic growth may be limited by natural limits to growth effected by population growthand excessive demand for non-sustainable and non-renewable resources. There is the possibility ofreaching limits of environmental carrying capacity. Therefore, future economic development maynot only depend on accumulation of capital and technology, but also on natural resources includingenergy and land, and the carrying capacity of the environment. These additional factors ofeconomic growth must be factored in to the future development of the country‟s economy. Figure 3 Low FTE Researchers – A Barrier to Sustained Economic Growth xi
To sustain future economic growth in Malaysia, investment in knowledge creation must becontinued or enlarged. The knowledge creation (R&D) function of the Mega-Science Frameworkwill rightly identify and address these needs.6. Malaysia needs to intensify knowledge generation in niche sectorsPart of the Mega-Science Framework calls for pervasive, intensive and extensive use of science toidentify and develop competitive knowledge and STI opportunities for commercialization in varioussectors of the economy. Subsequently, another part of the Mega-Science Framework will requireprioritizing of sub-sectors so that returns to strategic R&D investments are maximized. This willnaturally lead to more efforts being devoted to developing of niche key sectors where Malaysia hascertain competitive advantages.Identification of the niche sub-sectors may employ the process of consultation and short termevaluation of opportunities such as the “laboratory retreats” studies undertaken by the Malaysiangovernment recently. In addition, long term development of niche areas at the national level andthe private sector will be necessary. The process is iterative. The more the investment inknowledge (R&D and STI development) the more will be the discovery of niche areas forcommercial exploitation where Malaysia has the competitive advantage. But in-depth knowledgedeveloped through the Mega-Science Framework is firstly needed to identify the niche areas.7. Sectoral knowledge gaps and STI requirementsStudies of various economic sectors have identified the need to invest in knowledge gaps to sustaincurrent and future needs, maintain competitiveness and contribute to the country‟s economicdevelopment. Firstly, cost must be kept optimally low and secondly revenue must be maximized.Ideally, the sector will generate enough commercial revenue to cross-subsidise the need to maintainthe sector at minimal cost. For example, in the health and medical sector, knowledge enhancementis continuously needed to maintain the capacity of the sector to provide a high standard of healthservice. Efforts include promotion of preventive activities which will reduce health treatment in thelong run. But there are also opportunities to generate revenue by supplying and exportingcompetitive health services and products such as health tourism which can contribute directly toeconomic growth. Similarly, in the Water Sector, ASM‟s Mega Science Study has identifiedopportunities in S&T in various niche areas.In the biodiversity, energy and agricultural sectors which have been subjected to the Mega-ScienceFramework Studies undertaken by the Academy of Sciences Malaysia (ASM), it was found that theknowledge creation and STI application opportunities and gaps exist in both the home consumption xii
and exportable components of each sector. The defense sector could similarly fall into the twocategories of development, and as more economic sub-sectors are evaluated in the future under theMega-Science Framework Studies, the pattern will probably be the same: the need to develop boththe home consumption and exportable components of the sector in order to improve the country‟sstandard of living directly and to generate revenue for increased income.Examples of gaps in STI adequacy and niche opportunities have been identified during the Mega-Science Framework Studies undertaken by the ASM recently. The examples clearly show thatMalaysia has many niche areas for STI development for commercial exploitation especially for theexport component. It is also noted that a sector with well developed export component will alsoprovide for adequate home consumption needs. It implies that developing the export component ofa sector should be given greater focus and priority as this will serve to also develop the homeconsumption sector to bring about improved standard of living while increasing revenue andincome.8. Lubricating the Engine of GrowthThe Mega-Science Framework advocates the pervasive use of knowledge and proposes the use ofSTI as the main engine of economic growth and national development. An engine does notfunction without lubrication. To facilitate the smooth or lubricated functioning of STI, humanresource expertise must be adequately available. Fortunately, the enhancement of expertise ofhuman resource is achieved through the same engagement in knowledge creation process (R&D)and other forms of knowledge enhancement process (training) at universities, research institutes andtraining centers. The more people are involved in R&D and STI development; the better will be theavailable expertise of the country. R&D investments therefore contribute to expertise andknowledge enhancement of human resource.Another dimension of the lubrication process to the engine of growth is the level of income itself.There exists an iterative cycle in the relationship between intensity in investment in R&D and thelevel of income of the country. The higher the R&D expenditure the higher will be the incomelevel. The higher the income level, the higher will be the R&D expenditure. To break this viciouscycle, it is necessary to adopt a strategy of a high income economy, similar to what the country iscurrently attempting to do. In the past, Malaysia has adopted a low income and low cost economywith a reasonably high purchasing power parity index compared to other countries. It was foundthat the low income and low cost economy has severe limitations to promote further growth andconsequently, Malaysia was led into the middle income trap. Low income strategies do not attracttalents and retention of expertise in the country. Low income strategies also under-exploit theservices sector which now becomes a major sector of the economy. Services provided in Malaysia xiii
earn much lower revenue compared to similar services provided by the developed economycountries.High income economy means high salary which means high costs. Malaysia must be prepared toadopt a high income and high cost economy as this is the norm seen in other developed countries.High cost is inevitable because when looked from the income side, high income means high salary,but the same high salary will mean high cost when looked at from the cost perspective. The bigadvantage of high income and high cost (salary) economy is that expertise is easier to obtain andretain, and in addition, the services sector such as hotels, tourism, banking, airlines, etc will becharging internationally competitive prices to maximize revenue and income for the country.Furthermore, efficiency will automatically be enhanced when an economy operates on a highincome and high cost strategy. Such an economy will also be able to pay international prices andavoid most subsidies. The billions of Ringgit of subsidy money currently provided in thegovernment budget can instead be distributed to increase salary. Leaving it to the high incomeindividuals to buy the unsubsidized goods and services will further improve efficiency and reducewastages which are often encountered in a subsidized economy.9. S&T GovernanceIn Malaysia, Science, Technology and Innovation are being given very high priority. However,Academics and Researchers need to play a very strong role in evidence- and data-based decision-making, while bureaucrats should continue to play a supporting role.In the Korean example, a high-level National S&T Council, chaired by the President with theMinister of Environment, Science and Technology as the Vice-Chair and the Ministry ofEnvironment, Science and Technology as the Secretariat, has 5 Committees (Figure 4) on KeyIndustrial Technologies, Large-Scale Technologies, State-led Technologies, Cutting Edge andConvergence Interdisciplinary Technologies and Infrastructure Technologies. xiv
Figure 4 Korean National S&T Council10. FundingMalaysia is in the process of improving its science infrastructure to help improve the capacity of thecountry to use science (STI) as the main engine of growth for its future development. Funding andinvestment in R&D and strategic studies in all sectors of the economy remain underdeveloped. Suchfunding is both important and urgent because of the long lead time needed to provide future STIdeliverables.It is proposed that Malaysia makes a „jump start‟ and allocates RM 20 billion for an accelerateddevelopment of its science industry between now and the year 2020. This fund should be managedby the responsible agencies to ensure both priorities in R&D and strategic studies and theintensification of R&D especially in the private sector can be implemented. Such funding should beincreased if necessary during the period of implementation. Commitment to fund the scienceindustry with a RM 20 billion grant would greatly contribute to the achievement of the high incomeeconomy strategy as proposed by the government. In comparison, many other countries, bothdeveloped and developing, are already providing such mega science grants to invest for theirsustained growth in the future. As an example, the Korean Government gave an allocationamounting to US$16 billion to facilitate the R&D programme in the country. UNIK can beauthorized to manage, coordinate, distribute and monitor the RM20 billion grant.As a second option, part of the RM20 billion grant can be created from taxing corporate profits,amounting from ½% to 2%. The corporations will however be exempted from this taxation if they xv
can show that they are undertaking R&D. UNIK can be authorized to verify and certify that theR&D is being carried out. The exemption will be given to corporations able to show that they areundertaking R&D, Strategic Studies and/or undertaking technological acquisitions to further theirR&D capacity and capability. In this way, more R&D, of at least 75%, will be carried out by theprivate sector.In essence, the following actions are proposed as part of the functions of UNIK which will beauthorized to manage, coordinate, distribute and monitor the grant:(i) Raise R&D funding, amounting to 2% and above of GDP, through the Government initially giving a “launching grant” amounting to RM 20 billion. The grant can be sustained through taxing corporate profits, amounting from ½% to 2% with the necessary tax exemptions given as described above;(ii) Prioritise R&D areas with advice from the National Science Research Council; and(iii) Migrate to improving the R&D activities to be mainly private-sector driven with the ratio being private sector: public sector at 75%:25%.11. ConclusionA Mega-Science Framework can be the national vehicle to promote the application of knowledge(science) through STI commercialization to generate better standard of living and new sources ofrevenue and income to achieve economic growth and national development. The advocacy ofscience (STI) as an engine of growth can be reinforced through the strong recognition given via theMega-Science Approach on the need to have extensive investment in R&D and other strategicstudies in both traditional „scientific‟ sectors and the newly-emphasized services sector.The scientific STI system as an engine of growth can be further „lubricated‟ to deliver the endobjectives by the adoption of knowledge enhancement strategies through R&D and training, as wellas the adoption of a high income and high cost economic system as practiced by other developedeconomy countries. By systematically evaluating the knowledge and technology gaps in varioussectors and sub-sectors of the economy, it is possible to provide the country with a road map offuture opportunities in STI implementation for economic growth and national development. Presentstudies show many fertile areas of future opportunities exist for the sectors evaluated. xvi
Malaysia‟s rate of knowledge generation is falling far behind the desired target. It can be concludedthat science has not be given the needed funding and urgency to enable it to be truly the engine forsustained national growth for the future. It is hoped that the adoption of a Mega-ScienceFramework approach will help resolve these limitations and assist in the development of the scienceindustry in the country.Tan Sri Dr. Yusof Basiron F.A.Sc.PresidentAcademy of Sciences Malaysia22nd December 2010 xvii
PREFACEOne of the most frequently asked questions by decision-makers and scientists themselves is “Howcan Science, Technology and Innovations (S, T and I) contribute more effectively to economicdevelopment and wellness in a sustained manner without compromising the environment‟ssustainability”. There are good reasons to turn to S, T and I because they have a track record tomeet critical challenges posed primarily by the growth of human population and their wants. Theeradication of small pox by 1979 saved millions of life, the green revolution in the 1960's staved offglobal famine, nuclear power help to supplement increasing energy demand and the computerenhanced the dissemination of information for education, research and business. Antibiotics andvaccines dramatically increased life spans and improved health all through S, T & I.Unfortunately, during the past 30 years, the anthropocentric S, T & I approach changed foodproduction, transportation, communications, education, health and even culture (consumptionsociety) which resulted in unsustainable environments including climate change. Designed forefficiency and driven by profit, S, T & I innovated and produced non-biodegradable plastics, toxicDDT, CFC, harmful nuclear wastes and encouraged a new generation of consumption societythrough automation and mass production - not to mention sophisticated weapons of massdestruction. Today we face the results of \"destructive creation\" because the innovators failed tofactor in the impact on sustainability and wellness.Once again no doubt, S, T & I will rise to meet the new challenges in response to the national andglobal demand to factor towards enhancing quality of life in all products, processes, services anddevelopment projects. It is now known that there is no positive co-relationship between the rise inGDP and wellness or quality of life. The new awakening of the global community towards a moreecocentric paradigm will change innovations and business. There are already instruments in placesuch as \"eco-labeling\" for tropical timber, traceability for food products in EC and green buildingindex in Malaysia.The biggest challenge to all scientists is how to use the fixed earth resources (especially water, landand minerals) to produce food, water and goods for human needs without depriving habitats for themillions of other species and destroying the ecosystems. Proven existing technologies mustcontinuously be improved to be eco-friendly whilst the emerging one such as renewable energy,genomics, stem cells, nanotechnology, biotechnology and the novo-ICT must conform to the neworder of sustainability, ethical and moral obligations whilst contributing to the economicdevelopment of the nation. xviii
Malaysia, with its biodiverse wealth, can turn to nature for many of the answers for a developinginnovatively (and of course, sustainably) our economy. Scientists only need to uncover them. Weneed to turn to the sun - a natural nuclear fusion reactor for all our energy needs and to water (riversand oceans) to provide the additional food needs to begin our new journey towards a sustainableworld for all. This journey for Malaysia must begin now.At the same time, there are vast opportunities in various sectors of the national economy which canbe leveraged upon in an attempt to resolve challenges and problems faced by the populace throughinnovative approaches in the application of Science, Engineering and Technology (SET). Throughidentifying and developing various tools through SET, it will go towards ensuring that our economyis not only sustained but sustained in a sustainable manner.The Academy recognizes the importance of cross disciplines linkages that must be integrated duringplanning, implementation and monitoring of national programs and projects. Social engineeringmust be designed to match the rapid technical advances to minimize their negative impacts.In this series, of the Mega Science Framework Studies for Sustained National Development (2011-2050), undertaken by the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, S, T and I opportunities have beenidentified and roadmaps provided for the short- to long-terms applications of Science, Engineeringand Technology in the critical and overarching sectors such as water, energy, health, agriculture andbiodiversity.Academician Tan Sri Dr. Ahmad Mustaffa Babjee F.A.ScMega Science Framework Study Project DirectorAcademy of Sciences Malaysia25th Feb. 2011 xix
PREFACEOne of the most frequently asked questions by decision-makers and scientiststhemselves is “How can Science, Technology and Innovations (S, T and I) contributemore effectively to economic development and wellness in a sustained manner withoutcompromising the environment’s sustainability”. There are good reasons to turn to S, Tand I because they have a track record to meet critical challenges posed primarily bythe growth of human population and their wants. The eradication of small pox by 1979saved millions of life, the green revolution in the 1960's staved off global famine, nuclearpower help to supplement increasing energy demand and the computer enhanced thedissemination of information for education, research and business. Antibiotics andvaccines dramatically increased life spans and improved health all through S, T & I.Unfortunately, during the past 30 years, the anthropocentric S, T & I approach changedfood production, transportation, communications, education, health and even culture(consumption society) which resulted in unsustainable environments including climatechange. Designed for efficiency and driven by profit, S, T & I innovated and producednon-biodegradable plastics, toxic DDT, CFC, harmful nuclear wastes and encouraged anew generation of consumption society through automation and mass production - notto mention sophisticated weapons of mass destruction. Today we face the results of\"destructive creation\" because the innovators failed to factor in the impact onsustainability and wellness.Once again no doubt, S, T & I will rise to meet the new challenges in response to thenational and global demand to factor towards enhancing quality of life in all products,processes, services and development projects. It is now known that there is no positiveco-relationship between the rise in GDP and wellness or quality of life. The newawakening of the global community towards a more ecocentric paradigm will changeinnovations and business. There are already instruments in place such as \"eco-labeling\"for tropical timber, traceability for food products in EC and green building index inMalaysia.The biggest challenge to all scientists is how to use the fixed earth resources (especiallywater, land and minerals) to produce food, water and goods for human needs withoutdepriving habitats for the millions of other species and destroying the ecosystems.Proven existing technologies must continuously be improved to be eco-friendly whilstthe emerging one such as renewable energy, genomics, stem cells, nanotechnology,biotechnology and the novo-ICT must conform to the new order of sustainability, ethicaland moral obligations whilst contributing to the economic development of the nation. 1
Malaysia, with its biodiverse wealth, can turn to nature for many of the answers for adeveloping innovatively (and of course, sustainably) our economy. Scientists only needto uncover them. We need to turn to the sun - a natural nuclear fusion reactor for all ourenergy needs and to water (rivers and oceans) to provide the additional food needs tobegin our new journey towards a sustainable world for all. This journey for Malaysiamust begin now.At the same time, there are vast opportunities in various sectors of the nationaleconomy which can be leveraged upon in an attempt to resolve challenges andproblems faced by the populace through innovative approaches in the application ofScience, Engineering and Technology (SET). Through identifying and developingvarious tools through SET, it will go towards ensuring that our economy is not onlysustained but sustained in a sustainable manner.The Academy recognizes the importance of cross disciplines linkages that must beintegrated during planning, implementation and monitoring of national programs andprojects. Social engineering must be designed to match the rapid technical advances tominimize their negative impacts.In this series, of the Mega Science Framework Studies for Sustained NationalDevelopment (2011-2050), undertaken by the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, S, T andI opportunities have been identified and roadmaps provided for the short- to long-termsapplications of Science, Engineering and Technology in the critical and overarchingsectors such as water, energy, health, agriculture and biodiversity.Academician Tan Sri Dr. Ahmad Mustaffa Babjee F.A.ScMega Science Framework Study Project DirectorAcademy of Sciences Malaysia 2
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe Academy of Sciences Malaysia acknowledges with gratitude the Mega ScienceFramework Study Agriculture Sector Report’s Consultancy Team made up of thefollowing Lead Members:Dato’ Dr. Hashim Bin Abdul Wahab (Agreenetts Consultants Sdn Bhd) – LeadConsultantDr. Larry Wong (Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) MalaysiaProf. Dato’ Dr. Makhdir Mardan (Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM)Prof. Dr. Mohamed Ariff Bin Omar (Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM)Prof. Ir. Dr. Mohd Amin Bin Mohd Soom (Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM)Prof. Dr. Kuperan Viswanathan (Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM)Dr. Tee Ee Siong (Tee Nutrhealth Strategic Consultancy)Dr. Hashim Bin Mohd Noor (Forest Research Institute Malaysia (FRIM)The Academy of Sciences Malaysia would also like to thank gratefully the ASMMega Science Framework Study Technical Committee for their various inputs, ideasand suggestions given to the Consultancy Team during their presentations. The ASMTechnical Committee Members are:Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron F.A.Sc (President ASM)Datuk Ir. Ahmad Zaidee Laidin F.A.Sc. (Vice-President ASM)Academician Tan Sri Dr. Salleh Mohd Nor F.A.Sc (Secretary-General ASM)Academician Datuk Dr. Abdul Aziz S.A. Kadir F.A.Sc (Hon. Treasurer ASM)Last but not least, the Academy of Sciences Malaysia would like to record its utmostthanks to the following ASM Mega Science Framework Study Project TeamMembers:Prof. Emer. Dato’ Dr. Zakri Abd. Hamid F.A.Sc (Project Team Director from 1stSeptember 2008 until 28th February 2010)Academician Tan Sri Dato’ Dr. Ahmad Mustaffa Babjee F.A.Sc (Project TeamDirector from 1st May 2010 until present)Dr. Ahmad Ibrahim (Principal Team Member from 1st September 2008 until 31stDecember 2010)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis Mega Science Framework Study (MSFS) for a sustained growth in Malaysian agriculturetowards 2050 was conducted by a multi-disciplinary, consultancy team to developrecommendations for submission to the Academy of Sciences Malaysia. The MSFS-Agriculture consultancy team adopted the Megatrend-Scenario-Model approach inimplementing a comprehensive study and analyses for opportunities in science, technologyand innovations for Malaysian agriculture in the near term (2020), mid-term (2035) and long-term (2050) goals for commodity crops, agro-forestry, livestock, aquaculture and fisheries,and nutrition.An appraisal-assessment exercise by both comparative and matrix analyses was conducted onemerging issues related to agriculture (population increase and diminishing arable land,rural-urban migration, aftermaths of Climate Change and nutrition) against the backdrop ofthe over-arching need for judicious management of constrained resources (water, energy,health, agriculture and biodiversity) of planet earth that define and shape future challenges,scenarios and ST&I strategies in order to enhance sustained growth for Malaysian agriculturein the coming decades. To appraise the level of ST&I culture and adoption of the state-of-the-art technologies, a backstop and check-and-balance strategy was conducted via several fact-finding interviews with groups of middle-management officers from several agro-basedagencies (Federal Agriculture and Marketing Agency, Department of Fisheries, Faculty ofAgriculture, UPM and Department of Agriculture). Next, a matrix analysis on emerging andcurrent technologies relevant to agriculture was conducted to identify technology megatrendswhich was done through meta analysis and appraisal of technology as found in manyeditorials in journals, periodicals, technology-watch profiles in magazines, pundits‘ reviews,popular reviews in technology-related reading materials (Red Herring, MIT TechnologyReview, Time, Fortune, Forbes, Humboldt Kosmos, Portico, Health Today, NationalGeographic, Scientific American, Discovery Channel, Discover, Deutschland, and weblogsand websites). Once the emerging technologies and megatrends were identified and clusteredinto defining entities (Genomics and Molecular Breeding, ICT-enabled applications,robotics, RFID-tagged traceability system for food miles and food safety, precision farming,web-based knowledge portals, space agriculture and life support system, hypobaric chamberfor precision farming, etc.), associated emerging applications, technological convergence,new concepts, evolving policy shifts (European Aviation Biofuel Policy 2012, NewEconomic Model and NAP4), global trade agreements (WTO multi-lateral agreements),regional economic integration (ASEAN food intra-trade), changing demography (greyingMalaysian demography), changing dietary choices, values and life styles (shift to sedentarylife styles of the industrial society), growing awareness on biodiversity loss of the agro-ecosystems (agro-forestry), advances in closed-environment technologies (vertical and urbanfarming) and open field agriculture (enhancing the biodiversity of the mono-cropping systemfor commodity crops) were identified for further considerations on how our ST&I initiativescan be recommended for development under the Malaysian agriculture scenario.From the Megatrend-Scenario Model, many emerging concepts are defining and shaping thefuture of Malaysian agriculture, especially the need to address and mitigate the corollaries ofClimate Change; both at the national and global agriculture levels, towards 2050. Some of thedeliberated issues and concepts are: adoption of precision farming to reduce wastage andefficient use of constrained resources; vertical farming and urban agriculture to address foodsecurity to the populated cities and diminishing arable land; construction of plant walls on xxi
city buildings to clean and cool congested cities (horticulture-cum-environment), growingawareness and mindfulness of carbon and water footprints to be watchful on the use ofconstrained resources of energy and water; employing the close-loop agro-ecosystem of thecontrolled-environment, greenhouse to ward off the consequences of unpredictable weatherfrom Climate Change (temperature, rains, floods, droughts, disease outbreak, storms, lightduration, etc.); growing energy crops and use of organic fertilizers to reduce dependence oninorganic, petroleum-based, chemical fertilizers, insecticides, fungicides, and weedicides;adoption of green technologies and bioremediation of the agricultural pollution in theenvironment; the practice for sustainable and low-carbon agriculture; retrofitting the foodbasket to the new food pyramid for improved health.Two approaches of recommendations and milestones on the commodity crops and technologymegatrends were proposed in this MSFS study on agriculture, as to prospect for ST&Iopportunities based on the short-term (a decade from now – 2020), mid-term (one humangeneration of 25 years – 2035) and long-term (when new wave of technological epochs havebeen monitored to take place every 50 years – 2050).In the order of priority and importance, the activities related to the emerging technologies thatare identified to define and shape the coming decades of Malaysian agriculture are:i) Molecular breeding to be preceded with sequencing the DNA genome (Genomics) ofimportant economic crops (oil palm, rubber, cacao, tubers, herbs, commercial fruits, etc.) andestablishment of the genome library (Bar Code DNA Technology) and the splicing of thedesirable traits from other species (transgenic) with unique genetic traits into these economiccrops that already occupy most of the arable land for agriculture ( Genomics or specificallyMolecular Breeding for transgenic disease resistance, nitrogen-fixing microbes, improvingtraits (tolerant to droughts and droughts and transgenic disease resistance) and several foldsincrease of crop yields and the development of bioterials or new products.ii) Field Robotics is recommended to overcome labour shortage and perform in inaccessibleareas. Some of these field robots are equipped with vision system for harvesting ripe fruits,and motion-capture aided robots (Avatar-like) for harvesting of oil palm fruit bunches on talltrees, and wearable robots to perform back-breaking tasks of carrying oil palm bunches.iii) New Fishery and aquaculture - better knowledge management in the fisheries andaquaculture will be required for increasing the wealth of the seas. Technologies foridentifying new stocks and for managing depleted stocks will be the priority. Understandingthe seafood science behind safe harvest levels and following them under strong unifiedmanagement schemes will be the recipe for success over the next few decades to 2050.Research on the status of fish stocks, reproduction, and sustainable catch levels is urgentlyrequired together with better management of fishing effort. Genetically improved species foraquaculture will help in augmenting short falls in fish production from capture fisheries.Further adoption of transgenic technology in aquaculture will increase output but this willalso depend on consumer acceptance of the new products. These include genes that regulategrowth hormones, resistance to a wider range of temperature, disease resistance, hatching,osmoregulation, behaviour, and general metabolism. Developments in engineering, someadapted from offshore oil rig construction, increase the possibilities for a progressive offshoreexpansion of aquaculture using robust cages. xxii
iv) ICT –enabled applications generally are used to improve productivity through precisionfarming practice, such as, the use of satellite remote sensing imagery, sensors, geospatialinformation system (GIS), global national satellite system (GNSSS); installing barcode-tag intraceability system of farm produce of its origin and to track its process pathway for foodsafety, health, estimation of carbon footprints and water prints as well as to address labourshortage and improving agricultural productivity.v) Vertical and Urban Farming to overcome the issue of diminishing arable land to feed thecity population and to reduce carbon footprints or food milesvi) Water Technology to improve the efficiency of available freshwater for agriculture andspearhead the target to reduce the consumption of 70 % of available freshwater in agriculturevia fertigation, irrigation, water storage, redesigning the root architecture of crop plants,recycling and reuse waste water, and instructive construction for more efficient use of scarceand unpredictable availability of water due to Climate Change.vii) Energy Crops cultivate and generate indigenous sources of energy from agriculturalwastes and sources in the farms.viii) Human Capital for the development and appropriate employment and deployment ofKnowledge-based Agriculture for the coming decades is very critical to ensure the sustainedsuccess of agriculture to be the third engine of economic growth which need to beimaginatively and strategically implemented. Scholarship for strategic knowledge areas butnot preferred by students should be apportioned. Scouting for talents and picking theknowledgeable leaders in heading agriculture agencies are recommended.ix) Introduced Crop Species for bio-geographical transplant of introduced, allopatric,rainforest‘s flora and fauna species for crops or livestock from other continents with similarhabitat for Malaysian agriculture.x) ASEAN Convivialism in fostering food security and industrial agriculture among theASEAN countries - agriculture for food and energy security between ASEAN countries(ASEAN food intra- trade).xi) Biodiversity Conservation on conservation and prevention of the loss of geneticbiodiversity in the plantation-based, mono-cropping system of oil palm, rubber and cacao arerecommended to enhance the biodiversity of the agro-ecosystem.From another perspective, the Mega Science Framework Study team also provided anotherset of recommendations and milestone roadmap which is modelled along the contemporarycommodity approach model of oil palm, rubber, rice, cacao, floriculture and horticulture,fruits, vegetables, livestock, and aquaculture and fisheries with projected milestones for thenear-term, mid-term and long-term. Through molecular breeding, genome library sequencingand BarCode DNA Technology, oil palm, rubber and cacao are recommended to bedeveloped as transgenic super crops (vegetable-oil super crop for oil palm, industrial/non-food super crop for rubber, and herbal-based transgenic super crop). ICT-enabledtechnologies like satellite remote-sensing, satellite-based GIS, GNSS and RFID-taggedtraceability system will be used to track the origin of food source, marketing and carbonaudit. Controlled-environment agriculture will require web-based and other ICT-enabled xxiii
features to control humidity, temperature, light duration, timeliness of water availability, asthat can be used in vertical farming technology and also on poultry rearing and aquaculture.Farm mechanization will spearhead into a slightly different approach into intelligent farmingwhere automation and field robotics with the adoption of wearable robots to overcome labourshortage in the oil palm oil industry. Wearable and motion-capture-enabled, mounted roboticsare recommended for the purpose too. Other technologies, such as, controlled environment,composting and organic fertilizer development of using transgenic cover crops, crop rotation,and plant root system development will improve the efficiency of the nutrient and wateruptake and hence reduce the over-reliance on inorganic, chemical fertilizers.The field of genomics and molecular breeding, ICT and field robotics are apprised andrecognized to present as important and critical technologies that will define, shape and upliftMalaysian and global agriculture in the coming decades. Food production can be quadrupledin terms of its productivity and yield through molecular breeding. It is expected that thesecond wave of GREEN REVOLUTION will be once again be primed by transgenic,molecular breeding through unimaginable, transgenic possibilities to develop diseaseresistance, quantum increase in yield, production of creative bioterials, tolerance to extremetemperature and environmental conditions. Through appropriate use of ICT-enabledapplications and field robotics the productivity of agriculture can be tremendously improvedvia the development of intelligent agriculture and technological convergence. Other eco-friendly technologies such as bioremediation and the public awareness to preserve theenvironment by going organic will further add to these trends. xxiv
LIST OF FIGURESFigure 1.1: Biosphere 2 …………………… 3 13Figure 3.1: National history and evaluation from hunting-gathering to farming … 20 21Figure 3.2: State of Bumiputera participation rate within agribusiness value chain … 36 38Figure 3.3: Future direction for agribusiness cluster Halal hub … … … 40 42Figure 3.4: Cocoa Plantation … … … … … … … … 43 44Figure 3.5: Vegetable farm in Cameron Highlands … … … … … 47 48Figure 3.6: Ex-farm Value of Livestock Produce in Malaysia – 2008 …… 54 58Figure 3.7: Self-sufficiency Levels of Major Livestock Commodities in Malaysia … 68 71Figure 3.8: Per Capita Consumption of Livestock Products … … … …Figure 3.9: Per Capita Consumption of Poultry Eggs (number) and Milk (litres) …Figure 3.10: Livestock Population in Malaysia … … … … …Figure 3.11: Livestock Integration with oil palm farm …………Figure 3.12: Malaysia's Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD) ………Figure 3.13: Closed houses for poultry ………………Figure 3.14: Implication to Agriculture … … … … … …Figure 3.15: (a) alley cropping (b) Silvipasture … … … … …Figure 3.16: Precision farming components for site-specific management of soil,water and crop… … … … … … … … … … 77Figure 3.17: Prevalence of underweight according to age group … … … 81Figure 3.18: Prevalence of overweight according to age group … … … 82Figure 3.19: Increases in nutrient availability (1960s – 2000s) … … … 89Figure 3.20: Changes in food sources of calories (1960s – 2000s) … … … 90Figure 3.22: Changes in contribution of major nutrients to calorie intake (1960s – 2000s) 92Figure 4.1: Arable land is disappearing … … … … … … 97Figure 4.2: Temperature rising … … … … … … … 100Figure 4.3: Climate change is projected to adversely affect agriculture productivityto varying degree by 2080 … … .. …………… 102 104Figure 4.4: Hotter climate will reduce yield … … … … … … 105 107Figure 4.5: Changing DNA of the plantation industry ………… 118 121Figure 4.6: Top 10 irrigators worldwide … … … … … … 130 132Figure 4.7:Biodiesel production per hectare of oil-yielding crops … … … 144 151Figure 4.8: Biodiversity Hotspots … … … … … … … 159 161Figure 5.1: Agroforestry is an integer agriculture approach … … … … 164 167Figure 5.2: Rice terraces- forest coupled agroforestry system ……… 171 173Figure 5.3: Network of disease surveillance and control … … … …Figure 5.4: Global food security … … … … … … …Figure 5.5:The state of the world‘s fisheries inland and Marine capture fishery trendFigure 5.6: Regions of the world where major food crops were domesticated …Figure 5.7: Challenges and Scenarios ………………Figure 5.8: Model of vertical farming… … … … … … …Figure 5.10: Cycle of Precision Faming for Paddy … … … … …Figure 5.11: Precision Farming Cycle ………………Figure 5.12: Rainfall distribution pattern using Virtual Rainfall Stations and Radar DerivedRainfall for Sawah Sempadan Irrigation component, Tanjung Karang, Selangor … 183Figure 5.13: Food Pyramid … … … … … … … … 191Figure 5.14: Farm to Fork … … … … … … … … 197Figure 5.15: Agri-food supply chain: from seed to shelf … … … … 200 xxv
Figure 6.1: Convergence of ICT and Biology …………… 211 214Figure 7.1: Technological epochs and development impetus in human civilization … 219 220Figure 7.2: Serdang Agropolis ………………… 228 230Figure 7.3: Toward Production and K-Agriculture … … … … … 231 233Figure 8.1: Genomics … … … … … … … … … 240 241Figure 8.2: Transgenic …………………… 252Figure 8.3: Enzymes/Organisms to breakdown Cellulose … … … …Figure 8.4: DNA Barcoding … … … … … … … …Figure 8.5: Plant wall … … … … … … … … …Figure 8.6: Roof Garden … … … … … … … …Figure 8.7: Robotic farming … … … … … … … … xxvi
LIST OF TABLESTable 3.1: Value added of agriculture and agro-based industry, 2000-2010 … … 24Table 3.2: Value Added of Agriculture and Agro-Based Industry, 1990-2010 … 26Table 3.3: Agriculture and Agro-Based Manufactured Export, 2000-2010 … … 27Table 3.4: Employment and Value added per Worker in Agriculture andAgro-Based Industry, 2000-2010 … … … … … … … 29Table 3.5: Agriculture Land Use, 2000-2010 … … … … … … 31Table 3.6: Self-Sufficiency Levels in Food Commodities, 2000-2010 (%) … … 32Table 3.7: Agricultural Land Use In Malaysia: 1995 – 2010 … … … 33Table 3.8: Planted area of major fruits 1996 – 2007 … … … … … 34Table 3.9: Ex-farm Value of Livestock Produce in Malaysia: 2004 – 2008 (RM million) 41Table 3.11: Summary of prevalence of under-nutrition and overweight amongst children(0-18 years) (n=21,249) … … … … … … … … 80Table 3.12: Prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among rural communities(males)… … … … … … … … … … … 84Table 3.13: Prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among rural communities(females) … … … … … … … … … … 84Table 3.14: Prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity in 1996 and 2006according to gender … … … … … … … … 85Table 3.15: Prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity in 1996 and 2006according to ethnic groups … … … … … … … … 85Table 4.1: Contribution to Resilience and Climate Change Adaptability and benefits ofSRI Management Practices … … … … … … … … 112Table 5.1: Agro-biotechnology prospects in agriculture … … … … 165Table 9.1: Milestones for research opportunities in short term (2020), mid-term (2035) 255and long-term (2050) … … … … … … … … … 258Table 9.2: Milestone from crop, livestock and fishery perspectives … … … 276Table 9.3: Agricultural Sector (Technologies and R&D) … … … … xxvii
ABBREVIATIONSASM Academy of Sciences MalaysiaCABI Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau InternationalDOA Department of AgricultureDVS Department of Veterinary Services MalaysiaFAO Food and Agriculture OrganizationFCR Feed conversion ratio (amount of feed required to produce a kilogram of gain in body weight)FELCRA Federal Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation AuthorityFELDA Federal Land Development AuthorityGDP Gross Domestic ProductIPM Integrated Pest ManagementKEMUBU Kemubu Agricultural Development AuthorityLPP Lembaga Petubuhan PeladangMADA Muda Agricultural Development AuturityMARDI Malaysian Agricultural Research and Development InstituteMCB Malaysian Cocoa BoardMPIB Malaysian Pineapple Industry BoardMPOB Malaysian Palm Oil BoardMRB Malaysia Rubber BoardMSFS Mega Science Framework StudyPLANTI Plant Quarantine InstituteUPM Universiti Putra MalaysiaUSM Universiti Sains Malaysia xxviii
MEGA SCIENCE FRAME WORK STDUYFor Sustainable National Development on Agriculture (2011-2050) FINAL REPORT -i-
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis Mega Science Framework Study (MSFS) for a sustained growth in Malaysianagriculture towards 2050 was conducted by a multi-disciplinary, consultancy teamto develop recommendations for submission to the Academy of SciencesMalaysia. The MSFS-Agriculture consultancy team adopted the Megatrend-Scenario-Model approach in implementing a comprehensive study and analysesfor opportunities in science, technology and innovations for Malaysian agriculturein the near term (2020), mid-term (2035) and long-term (2050) goals forcommodity crops, agro-forestry, livestock, aquaculture and fisheries, andnutrition.An appraisal-assessment exercise by both comparative and matrix analyses wasconducted on emerging issues related to agriculture (population increase anddiminishing arable land, rural-urban migration, aftermaths of Climate Change andnutrition) against the backdrop of the over-arching need for judiciousmanagement of constrained resources (water, energy, health, agriculture andbiodiversity) of planet earth that define and shape future challenges, scenariosand ST&I strategies in order to enhance sustained growth for Malaysianagriculture in the coming decades. To appraise the level of ST&I culture andadoption of the state-of-the-art technologies, a backstop and check-and-balancestrategy was conducted via several fact-finding interviews with groups of middle-management officers from several agro-based agencies (Federal Agriculture andMarketing Agency, Department of Fisheries, Faculty of Agriculture, UPM andDepartment of Agriculture). Next, a matrix analysis on emerging and currenttechnologies relevant to agriculture was conducted to identify technologymegatrends which was done through meta analysis and appraisal of technologyas found in many editorials in journals, periodicals, technology-watch profiles inmagazines, pundits‘ reviews, popular reviews in technology-related readingmaterials (Red Herring, MIT Technology Review, Time, Fortune, Forbes, HumboldtKosmos, Portico, Health Today, National Geographic, Scientific American, -ii-
Discovery Channel, Discover, Deutschland, and weblogs and websites). Once theemerging technologies and megatrends were identified and clustered intodefining entities (Genomics and Molecular Breeding, ICT-enabled applications,robotics, RFID-tagged traceability system for food miles and food safety,precision farming, web-based knowledge portals, space agriculture and lifesupport system, hypobaric chamber for precision farming, etc.), associatedemerging applications, technological convergence, new concepts, evolving policyshifts (European Aviation Biofuel Policy 2012, New Economic Model and NAP4),global trade agreements (WTO multi-lateral agreements), regional economicintegration (ASEAN food intra-trade), changing demography (greying Malaysiandemography), changing dietary choices, values and life styles (shift to sedentarylife styles of the industrial society), growing awareness on biodiversity loss of theagro-ecosystems (agro-forestry), advances in closed-environment technologies(vertical and urban farming) and open field agriculture (enhancing thebiodiversity of the mono-cropping system for commodity crops) were identifiedfor further considerations on how our ST&I initiatives can be recommended fordevelopment under the Malaysian agriculture scenario.From the Megatrend-Scenario Model, many emerging concepts are defining andshaping the future of Malaysian agriculture, especially the need to address andmitigate the corollaries of Climate Change; both at the national and globalagriculture levels, towards 2050. Some of the deliberated issues and conceptsare: adoption of precision farming to reduce wastage and efficient use ofconstrained resources; vertical farming and urban agriculture to address foodsecurity to the populated cities and diminishing arable land; construction of plantwalls on city buildings to clean and cool congested cities (horticulture-cum-environment), growing awareness and mindfulness of carbon and water footprintsto be watchful on the use of constrained resources of energy and water;employing the close-loop agro-ecosystem of the controlled-environment,greenhouse to ward off the consequences of unpredictable weather from ClimateChange (temperature, rains, floods, droughts, disease outbreak, storms, lightduration, etc.); growing energy crops and use of organic fertilizers to reduce -iii-
dependence on inorganic, petroleum-based, chemical fertilizers, insecticides,fungicides, and weedicides; adoption of green technologies and bioremediation ofthe agricultural pollution in the environment; the practice for sustainable and low-carbon agriculture; retrofitting the food basket to the new food pyramid forimproved health.Two approaches of recommendations and milestones on the commodity crops andtechnology megatrends were proposed in this MSFS study on agriculture, as toprospect for ST&I opportunities based on the short-term (a decade from now –2020), mid-term (one human generation of 25 years – 2035) and long-term(when new wave of technological epochs have been monitored to take placeevery 50 years – 2050).In the order of priority and importance, the activities related to the emergingtechnologies that are identified to define and shape the coming decades ofMalaysian agriculture are:i) Molecular breeding to be preceded with sequencing the DNA genome (Genomics) of important economic crops (oil palm, rubber, cacao, tubers, herbs, commercial fruits, etc.) and establishment of the genome library (Bar Code DNA Technology) and the splicing of the desirable traits from other species (transgenic) with unique genetic traits into these economic crops that already occupy most of the arable land for agriculture ( Genomics or specifically Molecular Breeding for transgenic disease resistance, nitrogen-fixing microbes, improving traits (tolerant to droughts and droughts and transgenic disease resistance) and several folds increase of crop yields and the development of bioterials or new products.ii) Field Robotics is recommended to overcome labour shortage and perform in inaccessible areas. Some of these field robots are equipped with vision system for harvesting ripe fruits, and motion-capture aided robots (Avatar- like) for harvesting of oil palm fruit bunches on tall trees, and wearable robots to perform back-breaking tasks of carrying oil palm bunches. -iv-
iii) New Fishery and aquaculture - better knowledge management in the fisheries and aquaculture will be required for increasing the wealth of the seas. Technologies for identifying new stocks and for managing depleted stocks will be the priority. Understanding the seafood science behind safe harvest levels and following them under strong unified management schemes will be the recipe for success over the next few decades to 2050. Research on the status of fish stocks, reproduction, and sustainable catch levels is urgently required together with better management of fishing effort. Genetically improved species for aquaculture will help in augmenting short falls in fish production from capture fisheries. Further adoption of transgenic technology in aquaculture will increase output but this will also depend on consumer acceptance of the new products. These include genes that regulate growth hormones, resistance to a wider range of temperature, disease resistance, hatching, osmoregulation, behaviour, and general metabolism. Developments in engineering, some adapted from offshore oil rig construction, increase the possibilities for a progressive offshore expansion of aquaculture using robust cages.iv) ICT –enabled applications generally are used to improve productivity through precision farming practice, such as, the use of satellite remote sensing imagery, sensors, geospatial information system (GIS), global national satellite system (GNSSS); installing barcode-tag in traceability system of farm produce of its origin and to track its process pathway for food safety, health, estimation of carbon footprints and water prints as well as to address labour shortage and improving agricultural productivity.v) Vertical and Urban Farming to overcome the issue of diminishing arable land to feed the city population and to reduce carbon footprints or food milesvi) Water Technology to improve the efficiency of available freshwater for agriculture and spearhead the target to reduce the consumption of 70 % of available freshwater in agriculture via fertigation, irrigation, water storage, -v-
redesigning the root architecture of crop plants, recycling and reuse waste water, and instructive construction for more efficient use of scarce and unpredictable availability of water due to Climate Change.vii) Energy Crops cultivate and generate indigenous sources of energy from agricultural wastes and sources in the farms.viii) Human Capital for the development and appropriate employment and deployment of Knowledge-based Agriculture for the coming decades is very critical to ensure the sustained success of agriculture to be the third engine of economic growth which need to be imaginatively and strategically implemented. Scholarship for strategic knowledge areas but not preferred by students should be apportioned. Scouting for talents and picking the knowledgeable leaders in heading agriculture agencies are recommended.ix) Introduced Crop Species for bio-geographical transplant of introduced, allopatric, rainforest‘s flora and fauna species for crops or livestock from other continents with similar habitat for Malaysian agriculture.x) ASEAN Convivialism in fostering food security and industrial agriculture among the ASEAN countries - agriculture for food and energy security between ASEAN countries (ASEAN food intra- trade).xi) Biodiversity Conservation on conservation and prevention of the loss of genetic biodiversity in the plantation-based, mono-cropping system of oil palm, rubber and cacao are recommended to enhance the biodiversity of the agro-ecosystem.From another perspective, the Mega Science Framework Study team alsoprovided another set of recommendations and milestone roadmap which ismodelled along the contemporary commodity approach model of oil palm, rubber,rice, cacao, floriculture and horticulture, fruits, vegetables, livestock, andaquaculture and fisheries with projected milestones for the near-term, mid-termand long-term. Through molecular breeding, genome library sequencing andBarCode DNA Technology, oil palm, rubber and cacao are recommended to be -vi-
developed as transgenic super crops (vegetable-oil super crop for oil palm,industrial/non-food super crop for rubber, and herbal-based transgenic supercrop). ICT-enabled technologies like satellite remote-sensing, satellite-based GIS,GNSS and RFID-tagged traceability system will be used to track the origin of foodsource, marketing and carbon audit. Controlled-environment agriculture willrequire web-based and other ICT-enabled features to control humidity,temperature, light duration, timeliness of water availability, as that can be usedin vertical farming technology and also on poultry rearing and aquaculture. Farmmechanization will spearhead into a slightly different approach into intelligentfarming where automation and field robotics with the adoption of wearable robotsto overcome labour shortage in the oil palm oil industry. Wearable and motion-capture-enabled, mounted robotics are recommended for the purpose too. Othertechnologies, such as, controlled environment, composting and organic fertilizerdevelopment of using transgenic cover crops, crop rotation, and plant root systemdevelopment will improve the efficiency of the nutrient and water uptake andhence reduce the over-reliance on inorganic, chemical fertilizers.The field of genomics and molecular breeding, ICT and field robotics are apprisedand recognized to present as important and critical technologies that will define,shape and uplift Malaysian and global agriculture in the coming decades. Foodproduction can be quadrupled in terms of its productivity and yield throughmolecular breeding. It is expected that the second wave of GREEN REVOLUTIONwill be once again be primed by transgenic, molecular breeding throughunimaginable, transgenic possibilities to develop disease resistance, quantumincrease in yield, production of creative bioterials, tolerance to extremetemperature and environmental conditions. Through appropriate use of ICT-enabled applications and field robotics the productivity of agriculture can betremendously improved via the development of intelligent agriculture andtechnological convergence. Other eco-friendly technologies such asbioremediation and the public awareness to preserve the environment by goingorganic will further add to these trends. -vii-
TABLE OF CONTENTSExecutive Summary...................................................................................... iTable of Contents ...................................................................................... viiiList of Figures ...........................................................................................xivList of Table............................................................................................. xviiAbbreviations ......................................................................................... xviii1 Introduction............................................................................ 1 1.1 Early Agriculture...................................................................... 2 1.2 New Agriculture....................................................................... 5 1.3 Sustainable Development ......................................................... 6 1.4 Cycle-loop Production Systems.................................................. 7 1.5 Wellness................................................................................. 7 1.6 Mega Science Framework ......................................................... 82 Study Approach and Methodology............................................ 10 2.1 Appointment of Consultants in the Appropriate Area of Expertise. 10 2.2 Interviews with Key Officials in the Various Subsectors .............. 10 2.3 Reference to Key Journals, Websites and Other Publications ....... 10 2.4 Brainstorming Seminars among Members of the Working Group .. 10 2.5 Workshop with Stakeholders ................................................... 103 Status of Agriculture .............................................................. 11 3.1 Evolution and Paradigm Shifts towards Sustainable and Inclusive Agriculture 11 -viii-
i) Natural History and Evolution from Hunting-Gathering to Farming ............................................................................... 11 ii) Agricultural Footprints of Past Civilizations in the Tropics ...... 163.2 The Rise, Fall and Rise Again of Agriculture............................... 18 i) Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) ................................................. 223.3 Crops ................................................................................... 323.4 Livestock .............................................................................. 39 i) The Livestock Industry Today – Malaysia and the world......... 39 ii) Science, Technology and Innovation Contribution ................ 50 iii) Domestic Germplasms ..................................................... 52 iv) R&D investment ............................................................. 53 v) Future Trend in Livestock Industry..................................... 563.5 Fishery and Aquaculture ......................................................... 633.6 Agroforestry ......................................................................... 65 i) Traditional Agroforestry Practices ....................................... 66 ii) Conventional Agroforestry Practices ................................... 683.7 Precision Farming .................................................................. 753.8 Food and nutrition situation .................................................... 78 i) Socio-demographic changes............................................... 78 ii) Data on nutritional status of population groups ................... 78 iii) Nutritional status of children ............................................ 79 iv) Nutritional status of adults ............................................... 83 v) Micronutrient deficiencies ................................................. 86 vi) Infant and young child feeding pattern .............................. 87 vii) Changes in food consumption pattern ............................... 88 -ix-
4 viii) Non-communicable diseases related to lifestyle................. 93 4.1 Challenges Posed by Megatrends ............................................. 95 4.2 Population Increase ............................................................... 95 4.3 Diminishing Arable Land ......................................................... 95 4.4 Depleting Resources .............................................................. 98 4.5 Climate Change..................................................................... 99 4.6 Loss of Connectedness of the Ecoweb .................................... 101 Water ................................................................................ 106 4.7 i) SRI Management Practices .............................................. 111 4.8 Energy ............................................................................... 117 4.9 Health ................................................................................ 118 4.10 Biodiversity, Genomics and Genome Engineering..................... 1195 Monoculture Farming System ................................................ 120 Growth opportunities and Science, Technology and Inovation needs 5.1 123 i) Crops ................................................................................. 123 ii) Perennial Crops ................................................................... 124 iii) Fruit crops .......................................................................... 127 iv) Vegetables and Herbs .......................................................... 127 v) Ornamentals and Other Plants............................................... 128 vi) Energy Crops ...................................................................... 128 Agroforestry ....................................................................... 128 vii) Agrisilviculture............................................................. 131 viii) Silvipastoral................................................................ 132 ix) Home-garden ............................................................... 136 -x-
5.2 x) Community Forestry and Rare Fruit Reserve ..................... 138 xi) Perennial Crops and Biodiversity ..................................... 139 5.3 Livestock ............................................................................ 141 5.4 i) Poultry .......................................................................... 141 5.5 ii) Swine........................................................................... 145 5.6 iii) Ruminants ................................................................... 147 iv) Other Livestock and Wildlife Species ............................... 152 5.7 v) Livestock and the Environment........................................ 153 5.8 vi) Animal Welfare ............................................................. 157 5.9 Trans-Global Tropical Agriculture ........................................... 159 5.10 Agro biotechnology .............................................................. 1616 Controlled-Environment Agriculture System ............................ 165 Precision Agriculture ............................................................ 167 i) Adoption Strategy .......................................................... 176 ii) Barriers to adoption of precision farming .......................... 177 iii) Water Management ....................................................... 179 iv) Future of Precision Farming............................................ 184 Agriculture and Human Nutrition ........................................... 185 i) Bridging data gaps ......................................................... 188 Future nutritional issues in Malaysia....................................... 188 Agriculture and Economics.................................................... 196 Sustainable Agriculture ........................................................ 201 Supporting activities ............................................................ 203 i) Development of Human Capital in Agriculture .................... 203 ii) Training of Future Farmers.............................................. 206 -xi-
7 iii) Extension Education ...................................................... 207 7.1 iv) Technology Transfer...................................................... 210 7.2 Current Policies ................................................................... 213 7.3 Policies Pertaining To Development of Crops ........................... 213 Policy frame work in Livestock............................................... 2158 Research Funds ................................................................... 217 8.1 Recommendations ............................................................... 222 8.2 Biogeographical Transplant of species .................................... 224 8.3 Plant Gene Technology ......................................................... 227 8.4 Sustainable, Vertical and Urban Agriculture ............................ 235 New Fishery and Aquaculture ................................................ 245 8.5 i) Marine Capture Fisheries ................................................. 246 8.6 ii) Aquaculture Fisheries ..................................................... 246 8.7 iii) Inland Fisheries ............................................................ 247 8.8 iv) Aquarium Fish .............................................................. 2479 v) Fish Processing and Handling .......................................... 247 9.1 Human Capital in Agriculture................................................. 248 9.2 Convivialism in Agriculture towards ASEAN 2015 ..................... 249 9.3 Water use Technology .......................................................... 25010 ICT as Enabler for Productivity in Agriculture .......................... 251 Milestones .......................................................................... 255 Research Milestones ............................................................ 255 Milestones from Crop, Livestock and Fishery Perspectives......... 258 Logical Framework Analysis (LFA) .......................................... 276 Conclusion .......................................................................... 281 -xii-
11 References ......................................................................... 28312 Appendix ............................................................................ 305 Acknowledgments................................................................ 305 12.1 Member of Consultancy Team ............................................... 306 12.2 Index ................................................................................. 30713 -xiii-
LIST OF FIGURESFigure 1.1: Biosphere 2................................................................................ 3Figure 3.1: National history and evaluation from hunting-gathering to farming . 13Figure 3.2: State of Bumiputera participation rate within agribusiness value chain. ............................................................................................. 20Figure 3.3: Future direction for agribusiness cluster Halal hub ........................ 21Figure 3.4: Cocoa Plantation....................................................................... 36Figure 3.5: Vegetable farm in Cameron Highlands ......................................... 38Figure 3.6: Ex-farm Value of Livestock Produce in Malaysia - 2008 .................. 40Figure 3.7: Self-sufficiency Levels of Major Livestock Commodities in Malaysia . 42Figure 3.8: Per Capita Consumption of Livestock Products .............................. 43Figure 3.9: Per Capita Consumption of Poultry Eggs (number) and Milk (litres) . 44Figure 3.10: Livestock Population in Malaysia ............................................... 47Figure 3.11: Livestock Integration with oil palm farm .................................... 48Figure 3.12: Malaysia's Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD)............................. 54Figure 3.13: Closed houses for poultry......................................................... 58Figure 3.14: Implication to Agriculture ......................................................... 68Figure 3.15: (a) alley cropping (b) Silvipasture ............................................. 71Figure 3.16: Precision farming components for site-specific management of soil, water and crop. ....................................................................... 77Figure 3.17: Prevalence of underweight according to age group ...................... 81Figure 3.18: Prevalence of overweight according to age group ........................ 82Figure 3.19: Increases in nutrient availability (1960s – 2000s) ....................... 89Figure 3.20: Changes in food sources of calories (1960s – 2000s)................... 90Figure 3.22: Changes in contribution of major nutrients to calorie intake (1960s – 2000s) ................................................................................... 92Figure 4.1: Arable land is disappearing ........................................................ 97Figure 4.2: Temperature rising ................................................................. 100Figure 4.3: Climate change is projected to adversely affect agriculture productivity to varying degree by 2080 ................................... 102 -xiv-
Figure 4.4: Hotter climate will reduce yield ................................................. 104Figure 4.5: Changing DNA of the plantation industry ................................... 105Figure 4.6: Top 10 irrigators worldwide...................................................... 107Figure 4.7:Biodiesel production per hectare of oil-yeilding crops.................... 118Figure 4.8: Biodiversity Hotspots............................................................... 121Figure 5.1: Agroforestry is an integer agriculture approach .......................... 130Figure 5.2: Rice terraces- forest coupled agroforestry system ....................... 132Figure 5.3: Network of disease surveillance and control ............................... 144Figure 5.4: Global food security ................................................................ 151Figure 5.5:The state of the world‘s fisheries inland and Marine capture fishery trend ................................................................................... 159Figure 5.6: Regions of the world where major food crops were domesticated .. 161Figure 5.7: Challenges and Scenarios ........................................................ 164Figure 5.8: Model of vertical farming ......................................................... 167Figure 5.10: Cycle of Precision Faming for Paddy ........................................ 171Figure 5.11: Precision Farming Cycle ......................................................... 173Figure 5.12: Rainfall distribution pattern using Virtual Rainfall Stations and Radar Derived Rainfall for Sawah Sempadan Irrigation component, Tanjung Karang, Selangor................................................................... 183Figure 5.13: Food Pyramid ....................................................................... 191Figure 5.14: Farm to Fork ........................................................................ 197Figure 5.15: Agri-food supply chain: from seed to shelf ............................... 200Figure 6.1: Convergence of ICT and Biology ............................................... 211Figure 7.1: Technological epochs and development impetus in human civilisation ........................................................................................... 214Figure 7.2: Serdang Agropolis................................................................... 219Figure 7.3: Toward Production and K-Agriculture......................................... 220Figure 8.1: Genomics .............................................................................. 228Figure 8.2: Transgenic ............................................................................. 230Figure 8.3: Enzymes/Organisms to breakdown Cellulose .............................. 231Figure 8.4: DNA Barcoding ....................................................................... 233 -xv-
Figure 8.5: Plant wall............................................................................... 240Figure 8.6: Roof Garden........................................................................... 241Figure 8.7: Robotic farming ...................................................................... 252 -xvi-
LIST OF TABLETable 3.1: Value added of agriculture and agro-based industry, 2000-2010...... 24Table 3.2: Value Added of Agriculture and Agro-Based Industry, 1990-2010.... 26Table 3.3: Agriculture and Agro-Based Manufactured Export, 2000-2010 ......... 27Table 3.4: Employment and Value added per Worker in Agriculture and Agro-Based Industry, 2000-2010 ........................................................................ 29Table 3.5: Agriculture Land Use, 2000-2010 ................................................. 31Table 3.6: Self-Sufficiency Levels in Food Commodities, 2000-2010 (%).......... 32Table 3.7: Agricultural Land Use In Malaysia: 1995 - 2010 ............................. 33Table 3.8: Planted area of major fruits 1996 – 2007 ...................................... 34Table 3.9: Ex-farm Value of Livestock Produce in Malaysia: 2004 – 2008 (RMmillion) .................................................................................................... 41Table 3.11: Summary of prevalence of undernutrition and overweight amongstchildren (0-18 years) (n=21,249) ............................................................... 80Table 3.12: Prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among ruralcommunities (males) ................................................................................. 84Table 3.13: Prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among ruralcommunities (females) .............................................................................. 84Table 3.14: Prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity in 1996 and 2006according to gender................................................................................... 85Table 3.15: Prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity in 1996 and 2006according to ethnic groups ......................................................................... 85Table 4.1: Contribution to Resilience and Climate Change Adaptability andbenefits of SRI Management Practices ....................................................... 112Table 5.1: Agro-biotechnology prospects in agriculture ................................ 165Table 9.1: Milestones for research opportunities in short term (2020), mid term(2035) and long term (2050)................................................................... 255Table 9.2: Milestone from crop, livestock and fishery perspectives ................ 258Table 9.3: Agricultural Sector (Technologies and R&D)................................. 276 -xvii-
ABBREVIATIONSASM Academy of Sciences MalaysiaCABI Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau InternationalDOA Department of AgricultureDVS Department of Veterinary Services MalaysiaFAO Food and Agriculture OrganizationFCR Feed conversion ratio (amount of feed required to produce a kilogram of gain in body weight)FELCRA Federal Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation AuthorityFELDA Federal Land Development AuthorityGDP Gross Domestic ProductIPM Integrated Pest ManagementKEMUBU Kemubu Agricultural Development AuthorityLPP Lembaga Petubuhan PeladangMADA Muda Agricultural Development AuturityMARDI Malaysian Agricultural Research and Development InstituteMCB Malaysian Cocoa BoardMPIB Malaysian Pineapple Industry BoardMPOB Malaysian Palm Oil BoardMRB Malaysia Rubber BoardMSFS Mega Science Framework StudyPLANTI Plant Quarantine InstituteUPM Universiti Putra MalaysiaUSM Universiti Sains Malaysia -xviii-
1 INTRODUCTIONThe Academy of Sciences Malaysia (ASM) is undertaking a Mega Science Framework Study forSustained National Development (MSFS) for the period 2011-2057. The objective of the studyis to produce a framework/roadmap document that will provide relevant insight and guidanceto the Government of Malaysia in relation to future planning and development of theagriculture sector. This report is the outcome of the work of a team of consultants appointedby ASM in February 2010 to undertake the study.The scope of the study includes the following:i) To identify sources of future growth opportunities in the various areas in the agriculture sector.ii) To identify the current gaps in Science, Technology and Innovation (ST&I) knowledge in the agriculture sector and how (and the areas in which) science and technology can assist in the economic growth in the agriculture sector.iii) To undertake comparative studies with other developed countries that will allow the local agriculture sector to grow, including the identification and/or development of the policies necessary to sustain this growth.iv) To identify and propose appropriate measures in the research needs in the agriculture sector that can contribute to sustained economic growth.v) To conduct a review on international best practices of ST&I Policies and Plans for sustained national development in the Agriculture Sector.vi) To review and analyze Government‘s various policies, strategies and plans towards identifying educational (capacity building), technological, and scientific and governance (institutional framework) gaps in the Agriculture Sector.vii) To propose an Action Plan for implementation.This final report incorporates the findings of the team of consultants. The report provides asynthesis of development in the region and the world and captures the significance of science -1-
and technology in the selection of strategies by the government and industry for thedevelopment of the agricultural sector. Some suggestions for investment in the subsector arealso proposed.1.1 Early AgricultureWe examine the historical past of our agricultural heritage and infer the changes we canpossibly make to the agriculture of the future. The success of the tropical agricultural systemof the Angkor Wat (Cambodia), Borobudur (Indonesia), Mayans of the Aztecs (Mexico) andeven the apocalyptic Noah‘s Ark enabled us to count on our imagination and foresight to planfor the future. From the recent past, we draw inspiration from the history of food production,such as, the Old Spice route by Marco Polo, we have been able to assess our achievementsand shortcomings. Men were hunters‘ gatherers ca. 12,000 years ago. In time, foodproductivity increased with the change in the ―hunt-gather‖ method to grow-care-own,signifying the advent of agriculture.However, humans have the lessons from the past sustainable farming systems. In the case ofAngkor Wat, the old kingdom became a victim of its own success. The head water of the SiemReap River was the Kulen Hills. As the population grew, the hills were quarried for rock tobuild Angkor's temples. The hills were also logged for timber and firewood and to open landfor farming. It is believed that deforestation had caused floods that choked some of Angkor'scanals with sand and silt.A lesson can also be learned from the story of the great flood and Noah's Ark that was built topreserve the various species of the planet. In the context of modern times, global warmingcan lead to great floods of biblical or Quranic proportions. Thus, the concept of a modern dayNoah's Ark in the form of Floating Villages to survive a future global deluge has beendeveloped. Each of these villages would be able to support 50,000 people and inspire the needfor a sustainable agroecosystem. The four key areas of sustainable agroecosystem arebiodiversity credits; CO2 offset credits, renewable electricity and certified sustainable timber.There has never been a shortage of ideas for the concept of sustainable lifestyles. One suchidea is the Biosphere 2, a closed system that houses a collection of the germplasms of the -2-
world and promotes a low carbon lifestyle. Figure 1.1 shows the Biosphere 2 was viewed bythe space activist community as a precursor to future human colonies on the moon and otherplanets. Figure 1 .1: Biosphere 2Malaysia has been very successful in developing the country via organized and focused,economic development plans. Since the 1970s, within less than three decades, thedevelopment approaches have brought unprecedented GDP increase and economic well-beingof her citizens. However, after 40 years of 8 successive a 5-year phases of economicdevelopment plans, now it is clear that the current tenets and paradigms of the globaldevelopment on this planet of finite earth have changed in both emphasis and values.Emerging new constraints are defining the new tenets for sustained development and co-existence. The new orientation is sustainable development and inclusiveness. Now agricultureon finite earth is experiencing a new world of challenges of greater resource-constraints, food -3-
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