Tri Tue Dam Dong - Vi Sao Da So Thong Minh Hon Thieu So

["ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u00ec k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 s\u1ebd k\u00e9m ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n v\u00ec d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng k\u00e9m ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1edfi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi. T h\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a IEM \u0111\u00e3 truy\u1ec1n c\u1ea3m h\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 S\u1edf Giao d\u1ecbch Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Hollywood, \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y cho ph\u00e9p m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n thu v\u00e0o \u1edf c\u1eeda b\u00e1n v\u00e9, bu\u1ed5i bi\u1ec3u di\u1ec5n cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i Oscar. S\u1edf ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng Ba n\u0103m 2000. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 khi c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t t\u1ed1p g\u1ed3m 12 ph\u00f3ng vi\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb T \u1ea1p ch\u00ed Ph\u1ed1 Wall \u0111ang ki\u00ean tr\u00ec t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u xem c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean trong Vi\u1ec7n Ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1eadt v\u00e0 Khoa h\u1ecdc \u0110i\u1ec7n \u1ea3nh b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. T \u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, Vi\u1ec7n Ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1eadt v\u00e0 Khoa h\u1ecdc \u0110i\u1ec7n \u1ea3nh kh\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng l\u00f2ng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y v\u00e0 v\u1ecb ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch c\u00f2n c\u00f4ng khai c\u00f4ng k\u00edch t\u1edd Ph\u1ed1 Wall v\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch \\\"h\u1edbt tay tr\u00ean ch\u00fang t\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00eam trao gi\u1ea3i Oscar\\\". Vi\u1ec7n c\u00f2n c\u1ed1 thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean g\u1eb7p g\u1ee1 trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u00f3ng vi\u00ean, nh\u01b0ng theo m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n tin \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a t\u1edd Ph\u1ed1 Wall n\u00e0y th\u00ec m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi - 356 ng\u01b0\u1eddi, hay kho\u1ea3ng 6% t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu - \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu k\u00edn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. V\u00e0o th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u tr\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1ec5 trao gi\u1ea3i, t\u1edd Ph\u1ed1 Wall \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a bu\u1ed5i l\u1ec5, d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111o\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i theo s\u00e1u ti\u00eau th\u00ed l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a gi\u1ea3i Oscar - gi\u1ea3i phim hay nh\u1ea5t, \u0111\u1ea1o di\u1ec5n xu\u1ea5t s\u1eafc nh\u1ea5t, di\u1ec5n vi\u00ean nam v\u00e0 di\u1ec5n vi\u00ean n\u1eef xu\u1ea5t s\u1eafc nh\u1ea5t, di\u1ec5n vi\u00ean nam vai ph\u1ee5 xu\u1ea5t s\u1eafc nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 di\u1ec5n vi\u00ean n\u1eef vai ph\u1ee5 xu\u1ea5t s\u1eafc nh\u1ea5t.","Khi nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfc phong b\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edf ra, c\u1ea3 Vi\u1ec7n Ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1eadt v\u00e0 Khoa h\u1ecdc \u0110i\u1ec7n \u1ea3nh ph\u1ea3i s\u1eedng s\u1ed1t v\u00ec d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a t\u1edd Ph\u1ed1 Wall g\u1ea7n s\u00e1t v\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u00fang 5 trong s\u1ed1 6 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111o\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i. T uy nhi\u00ean, S\u1edf Giao d\u1ecbch Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Hollywood c\u00f2n c\u00f3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n n\u1eefa, c\u1ea3 6 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111o\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00fang v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n. \u1ea4n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 l\u1ebd l\u00e0 n\u0103m 2002, s\u1edf giao d\u1ecbch n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u00fang 35 trong s\u1ed1 40 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eadn gi\u1ea3i Oscar. C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u1edf S\u1edf Giao d\u1ecbch Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u1ea5n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o b\u1ea7u c\u1eed c\u1ee7a IEM, nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a, c\u0103n c\u1ee9 v\u00e0o m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 kh\u00e1c nhau c\u1ee7a hai d\u1ea1ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n. Nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u00e1nh ngang v\u1edbi c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111i\u1ec7n \u1ea3nh v\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 S\u1edf Giao d\u1ecbch Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 c\u1ea3 ng\u00e0nh kinh doanh b\u00e1n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cho c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng quay kh\u00e1c nhau. C\u00f3 l\u1ebd \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng \\\"th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y (t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n qua m\u1ea1ng), \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 ch\u00fang di\u1ec5n ra m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ti\u1ec1n - ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed kh\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u00e0o - b\u1ecb thua thi\u1ec7t. IEM l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, nh\u01b0ng nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t b\u1ea1n c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 500 \u0111\u00f4 la, v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia giao d\u1ecbch b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 m\u1ea5t c\u00f3 50 \u0111\u00f4 la. \u1ede S\u1edf Giao d\u1ecbch Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Hollywood, vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1 c\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1n ch\u01a1i. M\u1ecdi b\u1eb1ng","ch\u1ee9ng ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1u cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1eadp trung h\u01a1n v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh khi c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n th\u01b0\u1edfng k\u00e8m theo (V\u00e0 c\u00f3 l\u1ebd \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u00fd do kh\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i tr\u00ecnh t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a IEM c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n). Nh\u01b0ng David Pennock - m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u1edf T \u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n NEC, ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1eebng nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u k\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y - l\u1ea1i th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf v\u00e0 danh ti\u1ebfng l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 k\u00edch th\u00edch \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng s\u1ee9c v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c ch\u01a1i, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u00edch c\u1ef1c giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Khi nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a \\\"c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh\\\" tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng th\u00ec ph\u1ea1m vi c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 r\u1ed3i \u0111\u00e2y c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bao qu\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, tuy b\u00e2y gi\u1edd d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. Ely Dahan, m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 \u1edf T r\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Massachusetts (MIT ), \u0111\u00e3 l\u1eadp ra m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong l\u1edbp h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, trong \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c sinh vi\u00ean mua v\u00e0 b\u00e1n c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u01b0ng cho nhi\u1ec1u lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 kh\u00e1c nhau, bao g\u1ed3m lo\u1ea1i xe th\u1ec3 thao SUV, c\u00e1c khu tr\u01b0\u1ee3t tuy\u1ebft v\u00e0 c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n (T rong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ef1c, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o doanh thu n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfc SUV c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3). D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1ed1ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u00e0 trong nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0a ra (t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed l\u1edbn h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u). T rong khi \u0111\u00f3, S\u1edf Giao d\u1ecbch D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai","(Foresight Exchange) cho ph\u00e9p m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng vi\u1ec7c nh\u01b0 khi n\u00e0o th\u00ec c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 trong khoa h\u1ecdc, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 khi n\u00e0o th\u00ec ch\u1eefa \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ec7nh AIDS. Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng - v\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd v\u00e0 c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ea5y ch\u00fang nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai - \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 ch\u00fang r\u1ea5t \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong vi\u1ec7c t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p v\u00e0 di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i th\u00f4ng tin. Ch\u00fang ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng cho c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t l\u00fd do nh\u01b0 nhau cho n\u00ean kh\u00e1n gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh \\\"Ai l\u00e0 tri\u1ec7u ph\u00fa?\\\" c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ra c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi \u0111\u00fang 91%, nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i ngay cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia. Nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd th\u1ea5y \u1edf ph\u1ea7n sau, s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t con dao hai l\u01b0\u1ee1i; trong nh\u1eefng ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh kh\u00f4ng th\u00edch h\u1ee3p, n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 h\u1ea1i, l\u00e0m cho c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m tr\u1edf n\u00ean ng\u1ed1c ngh\u1ebfch h\u01a1n l\u00e0 th\u00f4ng minh. Nh\u01b0ng t\u00ednh \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh - v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh, do \u0111\u00f3 v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh - l\u00e0m cho vi\u1ec7c th\u00f4ng tin th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean trong nh\u00f3m (d\u01b0\u1edbi h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c mua - b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu) mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn, b\u1edfi l\u1ebd n\u00f3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 d\u00f9 m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi bi\u1ebft \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec ch\u0103ng n\u1eefa, th\u00ec t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c c\u0169ng s\u1ebd s\u1edbm bi\u1ebft ngay sau \u0111\u00f3. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u1edf ch\u1ed7 ch\u00fang ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta r\u00f5","r\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i. Dung h\u00f2a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ho\u1eb7c nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 (ho\u1eb7c s\u1ebd nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai) c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0 \u1edf nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi ch\u01b0\u01a1ng sau, b\u00ean c\u1ea1nh nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00e1c, ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd xem c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o khi nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. Nh\u01b0ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i, c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 th\u1ef1c l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n thu\u1ea7n t\u00fay c\u1ee7a tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e1m \u0111\u00f4ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang - t\u00ednh \u0111a d\u1ea1ng, s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u00e0 phi t\u1eadp trung - \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u00f3m \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn trong m\u1ecdi ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh.","Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng 2. KH\u00c1C BI\u1ec6T T\u1ea0O N\u00caN KH\u00c1C BI\u1ec6T \u0110i\u1ec7 u bay c\u1ee7a \u0111\u00e0n ong, s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7 n V\u1ecbnh C\u01a1n l\u1ee3n v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng I N\u0103m 1899, Ransom E. Olds khai tr\u01b0\u01a1ng C\u00f4ng ty \u00f4 t\u00f4 Olds \u1edf Detroit, bang Michigan. Olds gia nh\u1eadp gi\u1edbi kinh doanh \u00f4 t\u00f4 t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 80, th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 XIX, khi \u0111\u00f3 \u00f4ng ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o chi\u1ebfc xe \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i xe ba b\u00e1nh ch\u1ea1y b\u1eb1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc. T uy nhi\u00ean, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. Chi\u1ebfc xe th\u1ee9 hai \u00f4ng ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o c\u0169ng ch\u1ea1y b\u1eb1ng h\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1n cho m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty c\u1ee7a Anh, c\u00f4ng ty n\u00e0y b\u00e1n l\u1ea1i cho \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9. Nh\u01b0ng tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n, t\u00e0u \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u1eafm. Sau \u0111\u00f3, Olds th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp c\u00f4ng ty ri\u00eang c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o lo\u1ea1i xe ch\u1ea1y x\u0103ng, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f4ng ty ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u l\u00fang t\u00fang, khi\u1ebfn \u00f4ng l\u00e2m v\u00e0o ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n. \u00d4ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb C\u00f4ng ty \u00f4 t\u00f4 Olds, th\u1ef1c ra \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh t\u00ean l\u00e0 Samuel Smith c\u1ea5p g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 v\u1ed1n. Olds c\u00f3 c\u00f4ng ty ri\u00eang, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u00eam tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u00f4ng ch\u1ee7 c\u1ea5p v\u1ed1n. \u0110\u00e2y qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u00ec hai ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch","ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty. Smith cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00f4ng ty n\u00ean ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o lo\u1ea1i xe h\u01a1i l\u1edbn, \u0111\u1eaft ti\u1ec1n, c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p cho kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u01b0u tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. T h\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng, Olds l\u1ea1i cho r\u1eb1ng n\u00ean cho ra \u0111\u1eddi lo\u1ea1i xe c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp th\u1ecb \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u. N\u0103m 1900, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u00f4 t\u00f4 v\u1eabn c\u00f2n r\u1ea5t nh\u1ecf - n\u0103m \u0111\u00f3 ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea7y 15.000 chi\u1ebfc ch\u1ea1y tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ed1. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 v\u1ebb h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o ra lo\u1ea1i xe m\u1edbi mang t\u00ednh c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd t\u00ecm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1edbn, n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft c\u00e1ch ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o lo\u1ea1i xe c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea3i ch\u0103ng. T uy nhi\u00ean, Olds kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean m\u1ed9t \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng. T rong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u00f4ng ty \u0111i v\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i th\u1eed ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o t\u1edbi 11 m\u1eabu xe kh\u00e1c nhau, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng m\u1eabu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 h\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u1eafc quy \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 \u0111\u1ed1t trong. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd b\u1ecb th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng Ba n\u0103m 1901, trong c\u00e1i r\u1ee7i l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 c\u00e1i may, x\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o \u00f4 t\u00f4 b\u1ecb ch\u00e1y v\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 bi\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh tro b\u1ee5i, tr\u1eeb m\u1ed9t m\u1eabu ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o v\u00f4 t\u00ecnh n\u1eb1m \u1edf ngay g\u1ea7n c\u1eeda ra v\u00e0o v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb7ng l\u1eafm n\u00ean m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 m\u1eb7t l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u1ed7 an to\u00e0n. T h\u1eadt b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd, m\u1eabu xe c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh h\u1ea1, chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p m\u00e0 Olds h\u00ecnh dung c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00e1n ch\u1ea1y tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Ngay sau v\u1ee5 ch\u00e1y, Olds nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u01b0a m\u1eabu n\u00e0y v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. Chi\u1ebfc xe \u00f4ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \\\"xe Olds ch\u1eafn b\u00f9n cong\\\", v\u00ec s\u00e0n xe cong l\u00ean t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh c\u00e1i ch\u1eafn b\u00f9n. V\u1ec1 thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf, xe tr\u00f4ng r\u1ea5t v\u00f4 duy\u00ean, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfc xe ng\u1ef1a nh\u01b0ng","kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ng\u1ef1a, kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1eb1ng c\u1ea7n quay tay b\u00ean gh\u1ebf ng\u1ed3i v\u00e0 l\u00e1i b\u1eb1ng tay b\u00e1nh l\u00e1i. Xe c\u00f3 hai s\u1ed1 ti\u1ebfn, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u00f9i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 nh\u1ecf m\u1ed9t xi lanh. Chi\u1ebfc xe kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 ki\u1ec3u d\u00e1ng. Nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 600 \u0111\u00f4 la, xe n\u1eb1m trong t\u1ea7m tay c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 Olds l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t k\u1ef9 s\u01b0 nh\u01b0ng \u00f4ng c\u0169ng t\u1ecf ra r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 t\u00e0i trong vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp th\u1ecb. \u00d4ng ngh\u0129 ra nh\u1eefng h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o r\u1ea5t \u1ea5n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 cho m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i x\u1ebf tr\u1ebb l\u00e1i thi\u1ebfc Olds v\u01b0\u1ee3t 800 d\u1eb7m, xuy\u00ean qu\u1ed1c gia, \u0111\u1ebfn tham d\u1ef1 T ri\u1ec3n l\u00e3m \u00f4 t\u00f4 Manhattan. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 thu h\u00fat \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd c\u1ee7a b\u00e1o ch\u00ed v\u00e0 gi\u1edbi kinh doanh \u00f4 t\u00f4, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng c\u00f2n ho\u00e0i nghi r\u1eb1ng \u00f4 t\u00f4 n\u00e0y th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00e1nh l\u1edbi qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o. \u00d4ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e1i chi\u1ebfc Olds c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn trong cu\u1ed9c \u0111ua \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u1edf b\u00e3i bi\u1ec3n Daytona. V\u00e0 n\u0103m 1903, c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01a1n 4.000 chi\u1ebfc, nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u00f4 t\u00f4 n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c \u1edf M\u1ef9, c\u00f2n hai n\u0103m sau c\u00f4ng ty b\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 6.500 chi\u1ebfc. Olds tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf lo\u1ea1i xe s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed M\u1ef9. T h\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Olds \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 c\u1ea1nh tranh kh\u1ed1c li\u1ec7t. \u0110\u00fang v\u1eady, \u1edf th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 XX, c\u00f3 t\u1edbi h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m c\u00f4ng ty t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o \u00f4 t\u00f4. Nh\u01b0ng khi \u0111\u00f3, ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 h\u00ecnh d\u00e1ng xe v\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1, n\u00ean c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u01b0a ra r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u lo\u1ea1i xe, \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed9ng","c\u01a1 ch\u1ea1y b\u1eb1ng \u1eafc quy v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 h\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc. T homas Edison thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf ra lo\u1ea1i xe ch\u1ea1y b\u1eb1ng \u1eafc quy v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 1899, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 hi\u1ec1n tri\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng \\\"C\u00e1c tr\u1ea1m n\u1ea1p \u0111i\u1ec7n s\u1ebd m\u1ecdc l\u00ean \u1edf kh\u1eafp n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9\\\". C\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m, kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n ba t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 xe ch\u1ea1y tr\u00ean c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ed1 M\u1ef9 thay b\u1eb1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec7n. T \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, lo\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 h\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi coi l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch n\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea7y h\u1ee3p l\u00fd nh\u1ea5t cho xe \u00f4 t\u00f4, v\u00ec h\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng r\u1ea5t th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c n\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea9y xe l\u1eeda v\u00e0 t\u00e0u thuy\u1ec1n. H\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t tr\u0103m nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cho ra \u0111\u1eddi lo\u1ea1i xe h\u01a1i ch\u1ea1y b\u1eb1ng h\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc, trong \u0111\u00f3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 xe Stanley Steamer, lo\u1ea1i xe n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh huy\u1ec1n tho\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 - n\u0103m 1905, n\u00f3 ch\u1ea1y \u0111\u1ea1t v\u1eadn t\u1ed1c 127 d\u1eb7m\/gi\u1edd - v\u00e0 v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ti\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i khi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng. T uy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u lu m\u1edd d\u1ea7n. Lo\u1ea1i xe s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea1y \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e0i n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng n\u1ea1p \u0111i\u1ec7n. Xe ch\u1ea1y b\u1eb1ng h\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1t n\u00f3ng. Song, nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o xe ch\u1ea1y x\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u00f4 t\u00f4 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1edbn v\u00e0o c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t v\u00e0 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch chi\u1ebfm l\u0129nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Olds \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng l\u00e0 h\u00e3ng \u00f4 t\u00f4 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111i mua ph\u1ee5 t\u00f9ng kh\u00e1c nhau t\u1eeb c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c nhau thay v\u00ec t\u1ef1 ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ph\u1ee5 t\u00f9ng. Cadillac l\u00e0 h\u00e3ng \u00f4 t\u00f4 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c linh ki\u1ec7n ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t, nh\u1edd \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 chi","ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. V\u00e0 Ford, t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00e3 c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u00f4 t\u00f4 v\u1edbi d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n l\u1eafp r\u00e1p t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c cho ra \u0111\u1eddi lo\u1ea1i xe c\u00e0ng r\u1ebb c\u00e0ng t\u1ed1t. \u0110\u1ebfn th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 Chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, v\u1eabn c\u00f2n c\u00f3 h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t tr\u0103m h\u00e3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u00f4 t\u00f4 \u1edf M\u1ef9. H\u01a1n b\u1ed1n tr\u0103m c\u00f4ng ty \u00f4 t\u00f4 ph\u1ea3i ng\u1eebng kinh doanh ho\u1eb7c b\u1ecb mua l\u1ea1i, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 Olds, c\u00f4ng ty b\u1ecb h\u00e3ng General Motors mua l\u1ea1i. Sau khi t\u1eeb b\u1ecf c\u00f4ng ty mang t\u00ean m\u00ecnh m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian kh\u00e1 l\u00e2u, Olds m\u1edf c\u00f4ng ty \u00f4 t\u00f4 m\u1edbi c\u00f3 t\u00ean REO. Nh\u01b0ng \u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng g\u1eb7p th\u1eddi. Nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u00f4ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00ec Henry Ford - ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u00e0 \u1edf th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda s\u1ed1 xe \u00f4 t\u00f4 \u1edf M\u1ef9 - \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n n\u00f3i t\u1edbi lo\u1ea1i xe ch\u1ea1y b\u1eb1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec7n hay h\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u1eefa, c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00fang t\u00fang tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t ki\u1ec3u d\u00e1ng v\u00e0 k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc xe. T \u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u bi\u1ebft m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfc xe tr\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. N\u00f3 tr\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfc Model T. C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u00f4 t\u00f4 M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t. T h\u1ef1c ra, n\u1ebfu nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p m\u1edbi \u1edf M\u1ef9, nh\u01b0 ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1eaft, truy\u1ec1n h\u00ecnh, m\u00e1y t\u00ednh c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, v\u00e0 m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, ta s\u1ebd th\u1ea5y m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1. T rong t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y, th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ea7u kinh doanh \u0111\u1ec1u mang m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt l\u00e0 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn kh\u00e1c h\u1eb3n nhau v\u1ec1","thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7. Qua th\u1eddi gian, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1eafng v\u00e0 k\u1ebb thua, ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 s\u1ebd ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng. \u0110a s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u1ed7 ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 b\u1ecb c\u00f4ng ty kh\u00e1c mua l\u1ea1i. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 r\u1ea5t \u00edt tr\u1ee5 v\u1eefng v\u00e0 n\u1eafm quy\u1ec1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn th\u1ecb t r\u01b0\u1eddn g. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y l\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 r\u1ea5t l\u00e3ng ph\u00ed khi h\u00e0ng t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng s\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 b\u1ebf t\u1eafc v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng ty s\u1edbm b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n, trong khi h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 ch\u01b0a \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u00ec. Li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 c\u00e1ch n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ra nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n kh\u00f4ng? \u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi, ta h\u00e3y quan s\u00e1t c\u00e1ch l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00e0n ong. Ong l\u00e0 lo\u00e0i r\u1ea5t gi\u1ecfi trong vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm th\u1ee9c \u0103n. T heo T homas Seeley, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed1n S\u1ef1 th\u00f4ng minh c\u1ee7a lo\u00e0i ong (T he Wisdom of the Hive), th\u00ec th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00e0n ong c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bay \u0111i t\u00ecm m\u1eadt c\u00e1ch xa t\u1ed5 t\u1edbi 6 km ho\u1eb7c h\u01a1n, v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t v\u01b0\u1eddn hoa trong v\u00f2ng 2 km, th\u00ec ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn \u0111\u00e0n ong s\u1ebd t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y. V\u1eady l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u00e0n ong c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y? Ch\u00fang kh\u00f4ng t\u1ee5 t\u1eadp l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1i nh\u1eefng con ong t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm bay t\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2u, m\u00e0 ch\u00fang s\u1ebd cho m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 con \u0111i t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c xung quanh. Con ong n\u00e0o t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y","ngu\u1ed3n m\u1eadt hoa d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o s\u1ebd tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 t\u1ed5 v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111i\u1ec7u bay v\u1ea9y \u0111u\u00f4i \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00e1o tin, c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1eafc \u0111u\u00f4i ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o c\u1ee7a ngu\u1ed3n m\u1eadt hoa \u1edf n\u01a1i n\u00f3 tr\u00ean th\u1ea5y. \u0110i\u1ec7u bay n\u00e0y thu h\u00fat nh\u1eefng con ong c\u0169ng \u0111ang t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm kh\u00e1c, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng con ong c\u0169ng \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn ki\u1ebfm \u1edf ph\u00eda sau, ho\u1eb7c nh\u1eefng con \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y ngu\u1ed3n m\u1eadt kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0ng \u00edt h\u01a1n v\u00e0 ch\u00fang s\u1ebd t\u1eeb b\u1ecf n\u01a1i \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1edbi ngu\u1ed3n m\u1eadt hoa d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0n ong s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung v\u1ec1 n\u01a1i c\u00f3 ngu\u1ed3n m\u1eadt nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u00e2n t\u00e1n ra nhi\u1ec1u n\u01a1i kh\u00e1c nhau m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ch\u00fang l\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u m\u1eadt, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00e0 ch\u00fang b\u1ecf ra. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p r\u1ea5t th\u00f4ng minh mang t\u00ednh t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 cho v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 th\u1ee9c \u0103n c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e0n ong. T uy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e0n ong \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p th\u00f4ng minh \u0111\u00f3. T r\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft, ch\u00fang kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 x\u00e9t \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ecdi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u1ed3i m\u1edbi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng. Nh\u01b0ng l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o m\u00e0 r\u1ed1t cu\u1ed9c ch\u00fang v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u1ed1t nh\u01b0 v\u1eady trong khi ch\u00fang kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1eb7t ra v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3m hoa kh\u00e1c \u1edf \u0111\u00e2u? V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0n ong \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1i nhi\u1ec1u con bay \u0111i t\u00ecm tr\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 tin r\u1eb1ng \u00edt nh\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t trong s\u1ed1 ch\u00fang s\u1ebd t\u00ecm ra c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111i\u1ec7u bay b\u00e1o tin cho c\u1ea3 t\u1ed5 bi\u1ebft ngu\u1ed3n m\u1eadt hoa \u1edf \u0111\u00e2u.","\u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ea7n nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y kh\u00e1c h\u1eb3n v\u1edbi c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00eau \u1edf ch\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t. T rong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u1ecdng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00f2, c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed9 hay IEM, th\u00ec c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ho\u1eb7c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5. T rong nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean trong nh\u00f3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra nhi\u1ec1u th\u00f4ng tin kh\u00e1c nhau li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1, nh\u01b0ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh (T r\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 Bush ho\u1eb7c Gore; Saddam Hussein c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng T \u01b0 n\u0103m 2003.) T h\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng, \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nh\u01b0 t\u00ecm ra n\u01a1i c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u m\u1eadt hoa nh\u1ea5t th\u00ec nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh g\u1ed3m hai giai \u0111o\u1ea1n. \u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean l\u00e0 t\u00ecm ra nh\u1eefng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3. Sau \u0111\u00f3, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ecdn m\u1ed9t trong s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u00f3. \u1ede giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u00f4ng minh khi c\u1ea3 t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 c\u00f9ng \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t danh s\u00e1ch nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p kh\u1ea3 d\u0129. C\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft th\u00f4ng minh l\u00e0 ph\u00e1i \u0111i c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u ong t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u00e0ng t\u1ed1t. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ngh\u0129 Ransom Olds, Henry Ford v\u00e0 v\u00f4 s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u00f4 t\u00f4 kh\u00e1c, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng con ong bay \u0111i t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm. Ch\u00fang \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n th\u1ea5y (trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u00e1ng ch\u1ebf) c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n m\u1eadt - xe ch\u1ea1y x\u0103ng, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t, d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n l\u1eafp r\u00e1p t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng - v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1m \u0111\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh. T h\u1eadm ch\u00ed, ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 li\u00ean t\u01b0\u1edfng chi\u1ebfn","l\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o c\u1ee7a Olds nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec7u bay b\u00e1o tin c\u1ee7a ong v\u1eady. T \u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ebf m\u1ea5u ch\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch v\u00e0 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho nh\u1eefng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng suy \u0111o\u00e1n m\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t mong manh. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 v\u1ec1 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0o c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y nh\u01b0ng trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t v\u1eabn l\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng phi t\u1eadp trung, trong \u0111\u00f3, th\u1ebf l\u1ef1c (v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1ea5t \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n nh\u01b0ng quan tr\u1ecdng: c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1i t\u1edbi \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm (c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i nh\u01b0 v\u1eady), c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm h\u01a1n. T h\u1ef1c ra, nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc Rajiv Sah v\u00e0 Joseph Stightz \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 r\u00f5, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf phi t\u1eadp trung c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho nhi\u1ec1u \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 \u00edt, c\u00f2n n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eadp trung h\u01a1n (trong \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho nh\u1eefng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft l\u00e0 do ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng) l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 v\u00ec \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 ch\u1ea5p thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 hay m\u1ed9t t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n l\u1edbn, m\u1ed9t \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng th\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3i \u0111i qua r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u c\u1ea5p quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh, m\u00e0 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 c\u1ea5p n\u00e0o c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00e1c b\u1ecf \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00f3. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, trong m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 kh\u00e1c nhau, n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00e1c b\u1ecf \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n chuy\u1ec3n sang ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u1ebfp theo. V\u00e0 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng do ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 hay t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n l\u1edbn n\u1eafm gi\u1eef c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e0i","tr\u1ee3 trong m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng phi t\u1eadp trung nh\u01b0ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng kinh t\u1ebf phi t\u1eadp trung l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thu h\u00fat \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00e1o b\u1ea1o khi\u1ebfn cho gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd k\u1ebft th\u00fac t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p h\u01a1n. M\u1ea5u ch\u1ed1t cho to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng, kh\u00f4ng theo \u00fd ngh\u0129a x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i h\u1ecdc th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, m\u00e0 theo \u00fd ngh\u0129a kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m v\u00e0 kinh nghi\u1ec7m. B\u1ea1n mu\u1ed1n s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng trong \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p, cho n\u00ean m\u1edbi r\u00fat ra k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a nh\u1ea5t gi\u1eefa ch\u00fang, kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n d\u00f9 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf tr\u00ean c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m. Nh\u01b0ng b\u1ea1n c\u0169ng mu\u1ed1n c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1n. N\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf phi t\u1eadp trung c\u00f3 \u01b0u \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt l\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n \u0111\u1ec1u cho c\u1ea3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng (\u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 nh\u1ecf) th\u00ec \u01b0u \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean v\u00f4 ngh\u0129a khi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ed1ng nhau (ho\u1eb7c s\u1ebd gi\u1ed1ng nhau do b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e0n \u0111\u1ebfn trong ch\u01b0\u01a1ng sau). H\u1ecd gi\u1ed1ng nhau th\u00ec c\u00e1c \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u0169ng gi\u1ed1ng nhau, do \u0111\u00f3, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng nh\u1eefng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m m\u1edbi, nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 n\u1eb1m trong m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea1m vi r\u1ea5t h\u1eb9p. L\u1ea5y v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 m\u1edbi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n radio, khi \u1ea5y c\u00f3 ba c\u00f4ng ty chi ph\u1ed1i to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p n\u00e0y, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 American Marconi, NESCO v\u00e0 De Forest Wireless Telegraphy. C\u00f4ng ty American Marconi d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1edbn trong kh\u1ed1i t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n. NESCO \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hai t\u1ef7 ph\u00fa \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb Pittsburgh t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3. V\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ty","De Forest Wireless Telegraphy thu\u1ed9c s\u1edf h\u1eefu c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng c\u1ed5 \u0111\u00f4ng \u0111ang c\u00f3 tham v\u1ecdng t\u00ecm m\u1ecdi c\u00e1ch t\u0103ng l\u1ee3i t\u1ee9c t\u00edch l\u0169y. S\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch nhi\u1ec1u ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n. H\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t s\u1ebd k\u1ebft th\u00fac nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Jeff Bezos, ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Amazon, nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u00fa v\u1ecb, tuy c\u00f3 h\u01a1i c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i\u1ec7u, khi \u00f4ng so s\u00e1nh s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a Internet v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 \u1edf k\u1ef7 Cambri, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 t\u1eebng ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 ra \u0111\u1eddi, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 s\u1ef1 tuy\u1ec7t ch\u1ee7ng c\u1ee7a r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u lo\u00e0i sinh v\u1eadt nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ti\u1ebfn h\u00f3a. \u0110i\u1ec1u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1i n\u00e0y n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u00e1i kh\u00e1c. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean quen thu\u1ed9c m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3, kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u0111\u1ec3 \\\"ch\u1ecdn ra nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng\\\". Nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0o gi\u1ecfi trong vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ecdn tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng. T \u00f3m l\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd b\u00e0n \u1edf sau, trong s\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee5c ngh\u00ecn s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra h\u1eb1ng n\u0103m th\u00ec ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o \u00f4 t\u00f4 ch\u1ea1y b\u1eb1ng h\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc, Picturephone, Edsel, Betamax, Pen Computing lu\u00f4n \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1edbn v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. M\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nh\u1eadn ra nh\u1eefng c\u00e1i th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i v\u00e0 nhanh ch\u00f3ng lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ch\u00fang. N\u00f3i \u0111\u00fang ra l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu mu\u1ed1n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng th\u00ec m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1ea1o ra","nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1i th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, sau \u0111\u00f3 nh\u1eadn ra v\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ch\u00fang. \u0110\u00f4i khi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c l\u1ed9n x\u1ed9n nh\u1ea5t l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c th\u00f4ng minh nh\u1ea5t . II Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0a ra t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p \u0111a d\u1ea1ng nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p kh\u1ea3 d\u0129 l\u00e0 ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7. \u0110\u00e1m \u0111\u00f4ng c\u00f2n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p hay v\u1edbi gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p d\u1edf. Ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m r\u1ea5t t\u1ed1t vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t \u1ea5y. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00f3m hay kh\u00f4ng? N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, khi b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, th\u00ec m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p \u0111a d\u1ea1ng nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t? C\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea5y, nh\u01b0ng theo hai c\u00e1ch. S\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a v\u00ec n\u00f3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam c\u00e1c quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ed9 di\u1ec7n, n\u00f3 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a v\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, ho\u1eb7c \u00edt nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee5ng gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u00f3m. Vi\u1ec7c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng trong c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m nh\u1ecf v\u00e0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u1ecf th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi trong nh\u1eefng kh\u1ed1i t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n - nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hay c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed - v\u00ec m\u1ed9t l\u00fd do \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n: quy m\u00f4 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn c\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ai c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gia nh\u1eadp (b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ai cho ph\u00e9p hay thu\u00ea m\u01b0\u1edbn), c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c","\u0111\u1ed9 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m. T h\u1ef1c ra, th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 nh\u00ecn qua c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y \u0111a d\u1ea1ng v\u00ec ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c nhau tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 may r\u1ee7i, t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn kh\u00e1c nhau, c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 th\u00f4ng tin kh\u00e1c nhau (C\u00e1ch m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 n\u00e0y kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1ch m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng trong nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1o tr\u00ecnh vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, trong \u0111\u00f3 cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng th\u00f4ng tin nh\u01b0 nhau). Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng v\u1ec1 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c trong c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed9i v\u00e0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c, b\u1edfi v\u00ec trong c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m nh\u1ecf m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi r\u1ea5t d\u1ec5 nghi\u00eang theo nh\u1eefng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng qu\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f3p m\u00e9o quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m. Scott Page l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf T r\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Michigan, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng b\u1eb1ng m\u00e1y t\u00ednh nh\u1eb1m m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch ch\u1ee9ng minh nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, Page \u0111\u00e3 l\u1eadp ra nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00f3m g\u1ed3m 10 ho\u1eb7c 20 nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean v\u00e0 g\u00e1n cho m\u1ed7i nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean nh\u1eefng k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ecd gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p. V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 r\u1ea5t gi\u1ecfi, s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c k\u00e9m hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng g\u00ec Page th\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 nh\u00f3m g\u1ed3m c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean th\u00f4ng minh v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y th\u00f4ng minh h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 lu\u00f4n gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n nh\u00f3m g\u1ed3m to\u00e0n nh\u1eefng nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean th\u00f4ng","minh. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n ch\u1ecdn ra m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ecd gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 th\u00ec s\u1ebd hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 ngang, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n h\u01a1n, so v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u1ecf nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian c\u1ed1 t\u00ecm cho \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00f4ng minh v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ecd gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1. Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Page l\u00e0 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb, do \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 l\u00e0m cho m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111a d\u1ea1ng th\u00ec g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0m cho n\u00f3 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n. N\u00f3i nh\u01b0 v\u1eady kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eadn vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 - kh\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean n\u00e0o trong th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ngu d\u1ed1t v\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng. M\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0, \u1edf c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u00f3m, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 ri\u00eang tr\u00ed th\u00f4ng minh th\u00f4i th\u00ec ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7, v\u00ec m\u1ed9t m\u00ecnh tr\u00ed th\u00f4ng minh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch nh\u00ecn kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1. T h\u1ef1c ra, Page nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi r\u1ea5t th\u00f4ng minh l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi nhau s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trong vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y v\u00ec h\u1ecd c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ed1ng nhau trong nh\u1eefng vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u00e0m. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n cho r\u1eb1ng tr\u00ed th\u00f4ng minh gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 b\u1ed9 d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee5 g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng th\u00ec s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng \u201c t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t\\\" l\u1ea1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u00edt, do \u0111\u00f3, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 chung xu h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ebd gi\u1ed1ng nhau. \u0110\u00e2y th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed1t, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m s\u1ebd bi\u1ebft \u00edt h\u01a1n. N\u1ebfu b\u1ed5 sung v\u00e0o nh\u00f3m m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft \u00edt h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng \u0111a d\u1ea1ng, th\u00ec th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 s\u1ebd n\u00e2ng cao \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m.","\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 v\u1ebb gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 c\u1ee5c, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ee9ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, \u0111\u00fang m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft gia danh ti\u1ebfng v\u1ec1 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c James March l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y nh\u01b0 sau: \\\"S\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a tri th\u1ee9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec m\u1ed9t d\u00f2ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ng\u00e2y th\u01a1 v\u00e0 kh\u1edd d\u1ea1i v\u00e0... chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111ua t\u00e0i kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn thu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9 cao\u201d. L\u00fd do March \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0: nh\u1eefng nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u00e1 gi\u1ed1ng nhau s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ecdc h\u1ecfi l\u1eabn nhau v\u00ec m\u1ed7i th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec3 trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi nhau. C\u00e1c nh\u00f3m thu\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t r\u1ea5t gi\u1ecfi trong nh\u1eefng vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t, nh\u01b0ng d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n, h\u1ecd c\u00e0ng k\u00e9m kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 ra nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn kh\u00e1c. T rong m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng v\u00e0 r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a March th\u00ec nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y b\u1ecf qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 khai th\u00e1c-s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 qu\u00e1 \u00edt th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 th\u0103m d\u00f2-kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean m\u1edbi, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 h\u1ecd \u00edt kinh nghi\u1ec7m v\u00e0 k\u00e9m n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0m cho c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m th\u00f4ng minh h\u01a1n, \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n v\u00ec nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u00edt \u1ecfi m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean m\u1edbi bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 th\u1eeba \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft. Nh\u01b0 March \u0111\u00e3 n\u00eau: \\\"Hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb tri th\u1ee9c \u01b0u vi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean m\u1edbi b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng. T \u00ednh trung b\u00ecnh th\u00ec nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean m\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng am hi\u1ec3u v\u00e0 th\u00e0nh th\u1ea1o b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n m\u00e0 h\u1ecd thay th\u1ebf. L\u1ee3i \u00edch xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd\\\". III","Nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft \u0111a d\u1ea1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 khi b\u1ea1n t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111a d\u1ea1ng nh\u01b0ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft g\u00ec th\u00ec tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1eabn th\u00f4ng minh h\u01a1n tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 mu\u1ed1n n\u00f3i l\u00ean r\u1eb1ng: n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 giao ph\u00f3 nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1edbn cho m\u1ed9t ho\u1eb7c hai ng\u01b0\u1eddi, d\u00f9 h\u1ecd th\u00f4ng minh t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0o, th\u00ec n\u00f3i chung \u0111\u1ec1u sai l\u1ea7m. S\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft \u0111a d\u1ea1ng c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c mu\u1ed1n theo \u0111u\u1ed5i s\u1ef1 tinh th\u00f4ng v\u00e0 tr\u00ed th\u00f4ng minh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t. \u00dd ki\u1ebfn cho r\u1eb1ng tr\u00ed th\u00f4ng minh v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 tinh th\u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m tho th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec ch\u00fang ta quan ni\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c kinh doanh, trong \u0111\u00f3 t\u00e0i n\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 cao v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng ty n\u1ed5i tr\u1ed9i nh\u1ea5t, th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 do h\u1ecd c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00f4ng minh nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c cho h\u1ecd. Nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 tinh th\u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m cho th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u1edbi l\u00ed do; gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia. R\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, h\u1ecd v\u1eabn t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i. C\u00e1ch ch\u01a1i c\u1edd c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t ki\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1edbng, v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00ednh, kh\u00e1c h\u1eb3n v\u1edbi l\u1ed1i ch\u01a1i c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi nghi\u1ec7p d\u01b0, k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i nghi\u1ec7p d\u01b0 c\u00f3 n\u0103ng khi\u1ebfu. Chuy\u00ean gia ch\u01a1i c\u1edd quan s\u00e1t b\u00e0n c\u1edd v\u00e0 x\u1eed l\u00ed th\u00f4ng tin theo m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c h\u1eb3n, sau \u0111\u00f3, nhanh ch\u00f3ng nh\u1eadn ra nh\u1eefng th\u1ebf c\u1edd c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a nh\u1ea5t. T uy nhi\u00ean, c\u0169ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 chuy\u00ean gia trong nh\u1eefng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c n\u00f3i chung, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i c\u1edd chuy\u00ean","nghi\u1ec7p g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i hai v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u1edbn. T h\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia ch\u01a1i c\u1edd ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 chuy\u00ean gia v\u1ec1 c\u1edd. T heo tr\u1ef1c gi\u00e1c, ch\u00fang ta cho r\u1eb1ng tr\u00ed th\u00f4ng minh l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay th\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi gi\u1ecfi trong m\u1ed9t l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ecfi trong nh\u1eefng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng n\u00e0o ch\u1ee9ng minh \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u0111\u00fang \u1edf c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia. T hay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 tinh th\u00f4ng \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 n\u00f3 \\\"r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n h\u1eb9p\\\", nh\u01b0 W. G.Chase \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t. T h\u1ee9 hai v\u00e0 quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n l\u00e0: kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c n\u00e0o cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh chuy\u00ean gia trong nh\u1eefng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 \\\"ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh\\\", \\\"ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch\\\" hay \\\"x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c\\\". Lo\u1ea1i h\u00ecnh t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c theo th\u1ee9 b\u1eadc \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ef1 tin th\u00e1i qu\u00e1 khi ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng chuy\u00ean m\u00f4n h\u00f3a vi\u1ec7c ra c\u00e1c ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft cho ban qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn n\u00e0y tr\u1edf n\u00ean gi\u1ecfi h\u01a1n trong vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c chuy\u00ean s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 s\u1ebd gi\u00fap cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t th\u1ee3 c\u01a1 kh\u00ed gi\u1ecfi h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u. Nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ed9t t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai ch\u01b0a x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng mang l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 hay ch\u01a1i c\u1edd. T \u00f3m l\u1ea1i, m\u1ecdi b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia, n\u00f3i chung c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n th\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u00e0i \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ed1. T \u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ec1u quen v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ng\u1edb ng\u1ea9n m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 trong","kinh doanh t\u1eebng \u0111\u01b0a ra. N\u0103m 1927 Harry Warner \u1edf h\u00e3ng Wamer Bros ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u: \\\"\u0110\u1ecba ng\u1ee5c \u0111ang ch\u1edd \u0111\u00f3n nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1\\\". N\u0103m 1943, T homas Watson c\u1ee7a h\u00e3ng IBM ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u: \\\"T \u00f4i ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u00e1y t\u00ednh, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 n\u0103m chi\u1ebfc\\\". V\u00e0 n\u0103m 1977 Ken Olson, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch T \u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n T hi\u1ebft b\u1ecb K\u1ef9 T hu\u1eadt s\u1ed1, sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty m\u00e1y t\u00ednh l\u1edbn th\u1ee9 hai \u1edf M\u1ef9, cho r\u1eb1ng: \u201c Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u00ed do g\u00ec m\u00e0 ai c\u0169ng mu\u1ed1n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfc m\u00e1y t\u00ednh \u1edf nh\u00e0 m\u00ecnh\\\". T \u00f3m l\u1ea1i, trong su\u1ed1t m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf k\u1ef7, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00f4ng minh \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ph\u00e1n \u0111o\u00e1n ng\u1ed1c ngh\u1ebfch. Nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng n\u00f3i ra \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh t\u00edch t\u1ec7 h\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, trong m\u1ed9t n\u0103m ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, 70% s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau S&P 500. T rong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m li\u00ean t\u1ee5c, d\u01b0\u1edbi 10% s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee9c ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau n\u00e0y. N\u0103m 1991, Russo v\u00e0 Schoemaker \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c y h\u1ecdc, t\u00e2m l\u00ed h\u1ecdc, t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a chuy\u00ean gia v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda so v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n m\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf. James Shanteau l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ea5p qu\u1ed1c gia t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 tinh th\u00f4ng. \u00d4ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e1nh","gi\u00e1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 th\u00e0nh th\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi. T uy nhi\u00ean, \u00f4ng cho r\u1eb1ng \\\"quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng. \u00d4ng n\u00eau ra nhi\u1ec1u nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u, trong \u0111\u00f3 cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c \u00fd ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1eeba kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i, v\u1eeba kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1edbi nhau. V\u00ed d\u1ee5: m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u b\u1ec7nh h\u1ecdc l\u00e0 0,5, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u b\u1ec7nh h\u1ecdc kh\u00e1c nhau c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1. T rong nhi\u1ec1u l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c, \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia c\u00f2n kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n t\u1eed b\u00ean trong, \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n y\u00eau c\u1ea7u m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nh\u01b0ng \u1edf hai l\u1ea7n kh\u00e1c nhau, th\u00ec r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn trong m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd kh\u00e1c. J. Scott Armstrong n\u00eau ng\u1eafn g\u1ecdn quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia: \\\"M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ngu\u1ed3n tin \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00e0 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng th\u00f4ng tin hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3. T uy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ef1 tinh th\u00f4ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c h\u1ea1n h\u1eb9p c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i\\\". Ch\u00ednh \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn Armstrong \u0111\u01b0a ra \\\"L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ea3 tin\\\". trong \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n cho r\u1eb1ng: \\\"B\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 c\u00f3 bao nhi\u00eau b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean tri kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i th\u00ec nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ea3 tin v\u1eabn c\u1ee9 tr\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1n cho s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ti\u00ean t ri\\\" . M\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia ph\u00e2n","t\u00edch am hi\u1ec3u kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 vai tr\u00f2 g\u00ec trong vi\u1ec7c ra nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ed1t, m\u00e0 mu\u1ed1n n\u00f3i l\u00ean m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia d\u00f9 h\u1ecdc s\u00e2u v\u00e0 hi\u1ec3u r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2u, th\u00ec l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u0169ng n\u00ean g\u00f3p chung v\u1edbi \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c (c\u1ea3 chuy\u00ean gia v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i chuy\u00ean gia), c\u00f3 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady chuy\u00ean gia \u0111\u00f3 m\u1edbi ph\u00e1t huy h\u1ebft kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh (Nh\u00f3m c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn, th\u00ec \u00fd ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m c\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady). V\u00e0 n\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \\\"theo \u0111u\u1ed5i chuy\u00ean gia\\\" (c\u1ee5m t\u1eeb n\u00e0y xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i h\u1ecdc Richard Larrick v\u00e0 Jack Soll) c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng t\u00ecm ng\u01b0\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c, th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t sai l\u1ea7m. Ch\u00fang ta bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a \u0111a s\u1ed1 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n trong nh\u00f3m v\u00e0 c\u1ee9 sau m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ea1i c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u01a1n, trong khi \u0111\u00f3, hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1eb7t ra tho h\u1ecd. B\u1edfi v\u1eady, s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi, qua th\u1eddi gian, s\u1ebd l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m. Quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u00e1ch n\u00e0o nh\u1eadn ra h\u1ecd s\u1edbm h\u01a1n. T \u00f3m l\u1ea1i n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m kh\u00f4ng th\u00f4ng minh, \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia gi\u00fap cho h\u1ecd tr\u1edf n\u00ean th\u00f4ng minh, th\u1ebf th\u00ec t\u1ea1i sao ta l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ee7 th\u00f4ng minh \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ngay t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia? C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e1p cho c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi n\u00e0y nh\u01b0 sau: ch\u00fang ta ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng,","trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia mu\u1ed1n kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00ecnh. mu\u1ed1n m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf s\u1ef1 tinh th\u00f4ng theo m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ef1 tin c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi. Nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c di\u1ec5n ra kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00fang nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. T h\u1eadt l\u1ea1 l\u00f9ng, l\u00f2ng t\u1ef1 tin c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia v\u1ec1 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n h\u1ecd c\u0169ng c\u1ea3 tin gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c. T \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, r\u1ea5t \u00edt s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa vi\u1ec7c t\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. S\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft v\u00e0 bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1n hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 hai k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng kh\u00e1c h\u1eb3n nhau. N\u1ebfu \u0111\u00fang nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf, t\u1ea1i sao ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f4ng gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean \u00fd ki\u1ebfn cho r\u1eb1ng t\u00ecm \u0111\u00fang chuy\u00ean gia s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1? T \u1ea1i sao ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecf qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u00ednh b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u00fd ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong nh\u00f3m s\u1ebd cho m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 r\u1ea5t t\u1ed1t? Lanick v\u00e0 Soll cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 v\u00ec kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tr\u1ef1c gi\u00e1c c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u00ednh b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n r\u1ea5t k\u00e9m, ta th\u01b0\u1eddng ngh\u0129 t\u00ednh b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 l\u00e0m cho m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u1edf n\u00ean im l\u1eb7ng ho\u1eb7c tho\u1ea3 hi\u1ec7p. \u0110\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn, ch\u00fang ta th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng ch\u1ecdn ra chuy\u00ean gia gi\u1ecfi nh\u1ea5t h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 l\u1ea5y b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m. C\u1ed1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f2n m\u1ed9t l\u00fd do r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta quan ni\u1ec7m r\u1eb1ng tr\u00ed th\u00f4ng minh th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 \u1edf c\u00e1c c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm ra \u0111\u00fang ng\u01b0\u1eddi - \u0111\u00fang ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n, \u0111\u00fang gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh - s\u1ebd l\u00e0m cho m\u1ecdi vi\u1ec7c kh\u00e1c h\u1eb3n. V\u1edbi quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3, d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e1m \u0111\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1eaft","m\u00e0 nh\u01b0 m\u00f9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, ch\u00fang ta c\u0169ng t\u00ecm ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chuy\u00ean gia v\u00ec ch\u00fang ta \\\"b\u1ecb l\u1eeba b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 t\u00f9y ti\u1ec7n\\\", nh\u01b0 Nassim Taleb nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t. N\u1ebfu c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f9ng \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n th\u00ec qua th\u1eddi gian, s\u1ebd c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00e0nh t\u00edch \u1ea5n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh t\u00edch \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c. C\u1ed1 g\u1eafng t\u00ecm thu\u00ea nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00f4ng minh kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m b\u1ea1n \u0111i sai h\u01b0\u1edbng, nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng thu\u00ea ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00f4ng minh nh\u1ea5t th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea5y. IV M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n \u1edf c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 b\u1edfi h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng h\u1eb3n \u0111\u00e3 quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00ean t\u00ednh \u0111a d\u1ea1ng v\u1ec1 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u00f3m ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn. M\u1eb7t t\u00edch c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng, nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 n\u00f3 m\u1edf ra t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p kh\u1ea3 d\u0129 c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m v\u00e0 cho ph\u00e9p kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m h\u00f3a c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 theo nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c m\u1edbi l\u1ea1. M\u1eb7t ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng l\u00e0 nh\u00f3m s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng, th\u1ea9m quy\u1ec1n, ho\u1eb7c l\u00f2ng trung th\u00e0nh v\u1edbi nh\u00f3m h\u01a1n l\u00e0 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn. C\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m nh\u1ecf, th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 n\u1ea1n nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a suy ngh\u0129 nh\u00f3m theo c\u00e1ch g\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd h\u1ecdc Irving Janis. Sau khi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u k\u1ef9 h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 - k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m chi\u1ebfm V\u1ecbnh Con l\u1ee3n v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i trong vi\u1ec7c l\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u1eadn T r\u00e2n Ch\u00e2u C\u1ea3ng - Janis l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng khi nh\u1eefng","ng\u01b0\u1eddi ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh qu\u00e1 gi\u1ed1ng nhau - v\u1ec1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi quan v\u00e0 khuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng - th\u00ec h\u1ecd d\u1ec5 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh n\u1ea1n nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1i m\u00e0 \u00f4ng g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \\\"suy ngh\u0129 nh\u00f3m\\\". C\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t d\u1ec5 tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u1ed1 k\u1ebft h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111a d\u1ea1ng, v\u00e0 khi tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u1ed1 k\u1ebft h\u01a1n, h\u1ecd c\u0169ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c h\u01a1n v\u00e0o nh\u00f3m, t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t h\u01a1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u00fd ki\u1ebfn b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e0ng tin ch\u1eafc r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 x\u00e9t \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 \u0111\u00fang. Janis cho r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng d\u1ea1ng nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y c\u00f3 chung \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng, s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch duy l\u00fd nh\u1eefng l\u00fd l\u1ebd ph\u1ea3n b\u00e1c quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m v\u00e0 tin ch\u1eafc r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00e0 v\u00f4 \u00edch. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, trong s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n V\u1ecbnh Con l\u1ee3n, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Kennedy \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2m chi\u1ebfm m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f2n ho\u00e0i nghi v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 r\u1ea5t \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00ean ti\u1ebfng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o \u0111\u00e3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng gi\u1eef im l\u1eb7ng. V\u00e0, \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t, c\u1ea3 C\u01a1 quan t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o CIA v\u00e0 t\u1ed5 \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u00e1ch v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 Cuba trong B\u1ed9 Ngo\u1ea1i giao M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tham v\u1ea5n v\u1ec1 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch n\u00e0y. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc Cuba n\u0103m 1961 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb b\u1ecf qua m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch kh\u00f3 hi\u1ec3u, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 l\u00f2ng y\u00eau m\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ch\u1ee9ng d\u00e0nh cho Fidel Castro, s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Cuba v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u1ea3 quy m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0y (Cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c","quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u00fd ki\u1ebfn cho r\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi 1.200 qu\u00e2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 Cuba.) Ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n M\u1ef9 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed tin r\u1eb1ng c\u1ea3 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd th\u1ea5y cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u1ecd d\u1ec5 nh\u01b0 tr\u1edf b\u00e0n tay, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 vi\u1ec7c g\u00ec \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 d\u00ednh l\u00edu c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u00ed m\u1eadt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng khai \u1edf Guatemala (n\u01a1i c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi Cuba l\u01b0u vong \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n). \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 suy ngh\u0129 nh\u00f3m kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng g\u00ec nhi\u1ec1u v\u00ec n\u00f3 \u00e1p ch\u1ebf quan \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y hay c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, l\u00e0m cho \u00fd ki\u1ebfn b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra. Nh\u01b0 Arthur Schlesinger \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u: \u201c c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta di\u1ec5n ra trong m\u1ed9t kh\u00f4ng kh\u00ed nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ed gi\u1ea3 t\u1ea1o t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1\\\". T h\u1eadm ch\u00ed, n\u1ebfu l\u00fac \u0111\u1ea7u m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n b\u1ec1 ngo\u00e0i c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u00fd ki\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ed, ch\u1ee9 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ed th\u00ec t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t c\u1ed1 k\u1ebft trong nh\u00f3m s\u1ebd ph\u00e1t huy t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn c\u00e1i bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n b\u1ec1 ngo\u00e0i th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 xua tan nghi ng\u1edd c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean. Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n c\u1ea3 trong nh\u1eefng t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng m\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean trong nh\u00f3m \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 chung khuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng. V\u00ec th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0o \u0111\u1eb7t ra th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn theo l\u1ebd th\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u1eb7c s\u1ebd b\u1ecb lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf, ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch duy l\u00fd nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng n\u00ean m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e9 tr\u00e1nh tranh lu\u1eadn v\u1edbi ni\u1ec1m tin c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn h\u01a1n bao gi\u1edd h\u1ebft l\u00e0 h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00fang. S\u1ef1 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng trong m\u1ed9t m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng suy ngh\u0129 t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f4ng m\u1edf mang m\u00e0 c\u00f2n","ki\u1ec1m t\u1ecfa \u0111\u1ea7u \u00f3c ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta. V\u1ec1 kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh n\u00e0y, c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Janis cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ea1c l\u00f5ng, d\u00f9 may m\u1eafn l\u1eafm, v\u1eabn r\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu \u1edbt trong nh\u00f3m nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111ang mu\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1edbi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00fang M\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng n\u1eefa c\u1ee7a t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 v\u00f4 t\u00ecnh t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ph\u1ea3i tu\u00e2n theo. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 v\u1ebb t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 suy ngh\u0129 nh\u00f3m nh\u01b0ng th\u1ef1c ra l\u00e0 ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t. Khi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1edbn t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i tu\u00e2n theo th\u00ec m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi thay \u0111\u1ed5i quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ri\u00eang kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i v\u00ec anh ta th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 tin v\u00e0o quan \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c thay \u0111\u1ed5i quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ri\u00eang d\u1ec5 h\u01a1n vi\u1ec7c tho\u00e1t ra kh\u1ecfi nh\u00f3m. M\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 minh h\u1ecda \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn r\u1ea5t s\u00e1ng r\u00f5 v\u1ec1 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh bu\u1ed9c ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c ph\u1ea3i tu\u00e2n theo l\u00e0 th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng c\u1ee7a Solomon Asch, trong \u0111\u00f3 \u00f4ng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t v\u1ec1 ba \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eb3ng, xem \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0o trong s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 c\u00f9ng k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eb3ng c\u00f3 tr\u00ean t\u1ea5m th\u1ebb tr\u1eafng. Asch \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m g\u1ed3m t\u1eeb 7 \u0111\u1ebfn 9 ng\u01b0\u1eddi, m\u1ed9t trong s\u1ed1 h\u1ecd l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u00f9ng h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m. Sau \u0111\u00f3, \u00f4ng cho \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ee9ng v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u t\u1eebng ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho \u00fd ki\u1ebfn nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t. T rong th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m c\u00f3 12 th\u1ebb, \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi hai t\u1ea5m th\u1ebb \u0111\u1ea7u, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111\u00e1p \u00e1n \u0111\u00fang nh\u01b0 nhau v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eb3ng. T uy nhi\u00ean, t\u1eeb t\u1ea5m th\u1ee9 ba tr\u1edf \u0111i, Asch y\u00eau c\u1ea7u nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f9ng h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u00e1p \u00e1n sai \u0111i,","ch\u1ecdn nh\u1eefng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f9ng k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 tr\u00ean th\u1ebb, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00fang c\u00f3 c\u00f9ng k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i l\u00e0 anh ta \u0111\u00e3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec anh ta nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n g\u00e2y n\u00ean s\u1ef1 hoang mang. C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng \u00fd th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd thay \u0111\u1ed5i quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eb3ng t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn kh\u00e1c. Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec v\u1eady, h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ee9ng l\u00ean \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u00ecn k\u1ef9 c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eb3ng h\u01a1n n\u1eefa nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f9a m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch k\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec th\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n a dua theo nh\u00f3m, n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eafng ng\u1eafn h\u01a1n ho\u1eb7c d\u00e0i h\u01a1n \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eb3ng tr\u00ean th\u1ebb, m\u00e0 th\u1ef1c ra ch\u00fang v\u1eabn c\u00f9ng k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110a s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00f3i nh\u1eefng g\u00ec h\u1ecd suy ngh\u0129, nh\u01b0ng 70% s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u00fd ki\u1ebfn ri\u00eang \u00edt nh\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n v\u00e0 1\/3 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u00fd ki\u1ebfn \u00edt nh\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi. Sau \u0111\u00f3, Asch \u0111\u00e3 trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, \u0111a s\u1ed1 h\u1ecd kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 mu\u1ed1n h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng theo s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f4ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i v\u00ec h\u1ecd th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eb3ng c\u00f3 c\u00f9ng k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc. H\u1ecd l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t v\u1edbi m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi. \u0110\u1ebfn gi\u1edd, c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a Asch \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c","g\u1ea7n 50 n\u0103m; th\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3, \u0111a s\u1ed1 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 h\u01a1n ng\u00e0y nay v\u00e0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ng\u00e0y nay s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng tu\u00e2n theo tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t trong th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a Asch l\u00e0 n\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u mu\u1ed1n tu\u00e2n theo, m\u00e0 \u00edt cho th\u1ea5y h\u1ecd mu\u1ed1n d\u1eebng vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea1i. T rong th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c Asch g\u00e0i ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0o nh\u00f3m, thay v\u00ec b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u00f3m, ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y ch\u1ecdn nh\u1eefng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ebb th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ebb c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5m th\u1ebb, th\u1eadt hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 khi cho ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 ch\u01b0a bi\u1ebft m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng minh. V\u00e0 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o n\u00ean m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. Ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c trong nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn cho c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 vui v\u1ebb n\u00f3i l\u00ean suy ngh\u0129 ri\u00eang v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tu\u00e2n theo gi\u1ea3m h\u1eb3n. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady suy cho c\u00f9ng, t\u00ednh \u0111a d\u1ea1ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n t\u0103ng th\u00eam nhi\u1ec1u quan \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c nhau cho nh\u00f3m, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u01b0 duy \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp. Nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd th\u1ea5y \u1edf ch\u01b0\u01a1ng sau, s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1ec1 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn v\u1eeba l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n quan tr\u1ecdng trong c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u00e1ng su\u1ed1t c\u1ee7a t\u1eadp th\u1ec3, v\u1eeba l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng c\u00e1i v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef v\u1eefng t\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng. B\u1edfi l\u1ebd t\u00ednh \u0111a d\u1ea1ng gi\u00fap cho vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp, n\u00ean kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m th\u00f4ng minh mang t\u00ednh t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 n\u00f3.","Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng 3. KH\u1ec8 QUAN S\u00c1T, KH\u1ec8 L\u00c0M THEO S\u1ef1 b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc, th\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp I \u0110\u1ea7u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 XX, nh\u00e0 t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean h\u1ecdc ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 William Beebe v\u00f4 t\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t c\u1ea3nh l\u1ea1 m\u1eaft trong khu r\u1eebng Guyana. C\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e0n ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u00f4ng \u0111\u00fac c\u00f9ng di chuy\u1ec3n theo m\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n l\u1edbn. V\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n c\u00f3 chu vi t\u1edbi 1.200 foot v\u00e0 m\u1ed7i con ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t hai ti\u1ebfng r\u01b0\u1ee1i m\u1edbi \u0111i h\u1ebft m\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng. \u0110\u00e0n ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee9 \u0111i quanh v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady su\u1ed1t hai ng\u00e0y cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi \u0111a s\u1ed1 g\u1ee5c xu\u1ed1ng m\u00e0 ch\u1ebft. Nh\u1eefng g\u00ec Beebe nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201c V\u00f2ng lu\u1ea9n qu\u1ea9n\\\". \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00f2ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra khi nhi\u1ec1u con ki\u1ebfn trong \u0111\u00e0n nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y ch\u00fang b\u1ecb t\u00e1ch ra kh\u1ecfi \u0111\u00e0n. V\u00ec ki\u1ebfn b\u1ecb m\u00f9 v\u00e0 l\u1ea1c l\u1ed1i n\u00ean ch\u00fang theo m\u1ed9t quy lu\u1eadt \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n: \u0111i theo con ki\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00f3. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 ch\u00fang h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh n\u00ean m\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng lu\u1ea9n qu\u1ea9n, v\u00f2ng n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 khi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 con v\u00f4 t\u00ecnh \u0111i l\u1ed9n x\u1ed9n v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng con ph\u00eda sau \u0111i theo. Nh\u01b0 Steven Johnson \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y trong cu\u1ed1n S\u1ef1 l\u1ed9 hi\u1ec7n (Emergence), \u0111\u00e0n ki\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c r\u1ea5t t\u1ed1t. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 con","n\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh c\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e0n. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 con n\u00e0o ra m\u1ec7nh l\u1ec7nh. B\u1ea3n th\u00e2n c\u00e1c c\u00e1 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfn h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 ch\u1eb3ng bi\u1ebft g\u00ec. T uy nhi\u00ean, c\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e0n l\u1ea1i r\u1ea5t th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm th\u1ee9c \u0103n, x\u00e2y t\u1ed5 v\u00e0 sinh s\u1ea3n. Song, nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n gi\u00fap lo\u00e0i ki\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u0169ng ch\u1ecbu tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 c\u00e1i ch\u1ebft c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng con b\u1ecb r\u01a1i v\u00e0o v\u00f2ng lu\u1ea9n qu\u1ea9n. S\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i con \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o con kh\u00e1c, ch\u00fang kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp, n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u00fang s\u1ebd c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i tho\u00e1t ra kh\u1ecfi cu\u1ed9c h\u00e0nh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ec7nh. \u0110\u1ebfn \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y c\u1ee7a s\u00e1ch, t\u00f4i v\u1eabn coi lo\u00e0i ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 lo\u00e0i ki\u1ebfn. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng lo\u00e0i ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00f4 l\u1eadp m\u00e0 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c. N\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp th\u00ec c\u00e1c \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta, theo \u00fd ngh\u0129a n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, l\u00e0 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ch\u00fang ta. Ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng h\u00e0nh qu\u00e2n t\u1edbi c\u00e1i ch\u1ebft theo v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n ch\u1ec9 v\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i theo v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n \u0111\u00f3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng v\u00ec tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0o - kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e0n ki\u1ebfn - c\u0169ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ho\u1eb7c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00fang n\u1ebfu m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1edbi nhau. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i, m\u00e0 c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Galton v\u00e0 con b\u00f2 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00ed d\u1ee5 minh h\u1ecda d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u. M\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i h\u1ed9i ch\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1ef1 t\u00ednh","to\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0a ra con s\u1ed1 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh ri\u00eang v\u1ec1 tr\u1ecdng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00f2 (c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn \u00fd ki\u1ebfn tham gia b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i), d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201c th\u00f4ng tin ri\u00eang\\\" (\\\"T h\u00f4ng tin\\\" kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. N\u00f3 c\u00f2n bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 s\u1ef1 di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u1ea3 tr\u1ef1c gi\u00e1c). V\u00e0 khi g\u1ed9p t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1edbi nhau, th\u00ec d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean, g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u00f4ng minh v\u00ec hai l\u00fd do. T h\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan l\u1eabn nhau. Ngay khi ch\u00fang ta g\u00e2y ra sai l\u1ea7m th\u00ec nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ef1 h\u1ee7y lu\u00f4n (h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng v\u1eady) v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 th\u00f4ng tin t\u00edch l\u0169y, th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0y, nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y, th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1. T h\u1ee9 hai, n\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp, c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd c\u00f3 th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi h\u01a1n, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u0169 \u0111\u00e3 quen thu\u1ed9c v\u1edbi m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi. Khi \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m th\u00f4ng minh nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111a d\u1ea1ng, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1eef th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1edbi nhau. T uy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd hay c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng. B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thi\u00ean v\u1ecb v\u00e0 r\u1ea5t phi l\u00fd, nh\u01b0ng mi\u1ec5n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m cho nh\u00f3m th\u00f4ng minh h\u01a1n. B\u00e2y gi\u1edd, ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 quen thu\u1ed9c. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00f3 r\u1ea5t h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t","tr\u1ef1c gi\u00e1c b\u1edfi l\u1ebd \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y, t\u00ednh t\u1ef1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean. N\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb M\u1ef9. V\u00e0 n\u00f3 l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf cho h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c gi\u00e1o tr\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf th\u01b0\u1eddng coi nh\u01b0 v\u1eady v\u00ec cho r\u1eb1ng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 t\u00ednh v\u1ee5 l\u1ee3i. V\u00e0 h\u1ecd cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1edbi quan ni\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 l\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. T heo c\u00e1ch n\u00f3i \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0: n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i gh\u00e9t chi\u1ebfc BMW m\u1edbi th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea1n y\u00eau th\u00edch n\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng g\u00ec \u0111\u1ebfn \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1eb1m \u1edf ch\u1ed7 gi\u1eef \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c d\u1ec5 l\u00e0m. T \u00f3m l\u1ea1i, \u1edf ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, ch\u00fang ta t\u1eebng th\u1ea5y c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u (th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 tin t\u01b0\u1edfng) r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ebb ng\u1eafn l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ebb d\u00e0i. Ch\u00fang ta l\u00e0 sinh v\u1eadt c\u00f3 t\u00ednh t\u1ef1 tr\u1ecb, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang ta c\u0169ng l\u00e0 sinh v\u1eadt mang t\u00ednh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. Ch\u00fang ta mu\u1ed1n h\u1ecdc h\u1ecfi l\u1eabn nhau v\u00e0 h\u1ecdc t\u1eadp l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ed1ng, tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ecdc, n\u01a1i l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c, v.v... h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh n\u00ean c\u00e1ch ngh\u0129 v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta. Nh\u01b0 Herbert Simon \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u: \\\"Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ai s\u1ed1ng su\u1ed1t h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng hay h\u00e0ng n\u0103m \u1edf m\u1ed9t v\u00ed tr\u00ed ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t trong m\u1ed9t t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c, ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t hay gi\u1ea5u m\u00ecnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 giao ti\u1ebfp m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec anh ta \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn, tin t\u01b0\u1edfng, hy v\u1ecdng, mong mu\u1ed1n, nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh, s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i hay \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t.\\\" Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00f3 quan tr\u1ecdng hay kh\u00f4ng m\u00e0 l\u00e0 n\u00f3 quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0o.","C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh t\u00ednh t\u1ef1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 th\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng. Nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u0169ng nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i h\u1ecdc t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng mua v\u00e0 b\u00e1n. T rong khi \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00fd lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 con ng\u01b0\u1eddi g\u1eafn v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t v\u00e0 coi s\u1ef1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i h\u1ecdc n\u00f3i chung kh\u00f4ng coi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1. H\u1ecd cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi. V\u00e0 n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng th\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u00e0y. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i l\u1edbn ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n nh\u00f3m \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4n ngoan. Ch\u00fang ta c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1edbi nhau, c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd tin v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u gi\u1ed1ng nhau v\u00e0 g\u00e2y ra nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m nh\u01b0 nhau. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n m\u1ed7i ch\u00fang ta tr\u1edf n\u00ean th\u00f4ng minh h\u01a1n nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea3 t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i ng\u1ed1c ngh\u1ebfch h\u01a1n. V\u1eady n\u00ean, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00fang ta c\u1ea7n t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u khi ngh\u0129 v\u1ec1 tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 l\u00e0: Li\u1ec7u nh\u1eefng nh\u00f3m \u0111\u00f4ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u00f4ng minh hay kh\u00f4ng ngay c\u1ea3 khi h\u1ecd ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi nhau, cho d\u00f9 c\u00f3 th\u1ea5t t h \u01b0\u1eddn g? II N\u0103m 1968, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i Stanley Milgram, Leonard Bickman v\u00e0 Lawrence Berkowitz quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh g\u00e2y ra m\u1ed9t r\u1eafc","r\u1ed1i nh\u1ecf. \u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, h\u1ecd cho m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ee9ng \u1edf g\u00f3c ph\u1ed1 v\u00e0 nh\u00ecn l\u00ean b\u1ea7u tr\u1eddi tr\u1ed1ng kh\u00f4ng trong 60 gi\u00e2y. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 xem ng\u01b0\u1eddi kia nh\u00ecn g\u00ec nh\u01b0ng r\u1ed3i \u0111a s\u1ed1 c\u0169ng b\u01b0\u1edbc qua. L\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd h\u1ecdc cho n\u0103m ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u1edf g\u00f3c ph\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3. L\u1ea7n n\u00e0y, s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 quan s\u00e1t theo \u0111\u00f4ng h\u01a1n g\u1ea5p b\u1ed1n l\u1ea7n. Khi cho 15 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ee9ng \u1edf g\u00f3c ph\u1ed1, c\u00f3 t\u1edbi 45% s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi qua \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 khi t\u0103ng s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ee9ng \u1edf g\u00f3c ph\u1ed1 th\u00eam m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa, c\u00f3 t\u1edbi h\u01a1n 80% ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3i ng\u1ea9ng \u0111\u1ea7u quan s\u00e1t theo. Ba m\u01b0\u01a1i n\u0103m sau, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i kh\u00e1c, Wess Schultz, c\u0169ng c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u xem t\u1ea1i sao ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf r\u00e1c ho\u1eb7c t\u1ea1i sao l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng. \u00d4ng g\u1eedi nhi\u1ec1u t\u1edd r\u01a1i kh\u00e1c nhau cho c\u00e1c c\u01b0 d\u00e2n \u1edf m\u1ed9t v\u00f9ng ngo\u1ea1i \u00f4 Los Angeles. M\u1ed9t t\u1edd tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y nh\u1eefng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb1ng sau vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf r\u00e1c. M\u1ed9t t\u1edd kh\u00e1c nhi\u1ec7t t\u00ecnh khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf r\u00e1c. V\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u1edd ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n cho bi\u1ebft c\u00f3 bao nhi\u00eau c\u01b0 d\u00e2n \u1edf v\u00f9ng l\u00e2n c\u1eadn \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf r\u00e1c v\u00e0 h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00f3 nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1edd r\u01a1i cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf r\u00e1c nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n, v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng sau, h\u1ecd v\u1eabn c\u00f2n l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00f3. T uy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c t\u1edd r\u01a1i kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. M\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch c\u1ee7a hai th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m n\u00e0y l\u00e0 mu\u1ed1n ch\u1ee9ng minh h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng, \\\"B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i\\\", \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng cho","r\u1eb1ng: n\u1ebfu nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f9ng tin t\u01b0\u1edfng ho\u1eb7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec7c g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 th\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00fang. Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 tu\u00e2n theo: m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng nh\u00ecn l\u00ean b\u1ea7u tr\u1eddi v\u00ec c\u00f3 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ngang h\u00e0ng hay s\u1ee3 b\u1ecb ch\u00ea tr\u00e1ch. H\u1ecd nh\u00ecn l\u00ean b\u1ea7u tr\u1eddi v\u00ec cho r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng l\u1ebd nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u1ea3i ng\u1ea9ng m\u1eb7t nh\u00ecn l\u00ean n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean tr\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00e1 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f4ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi, \u0111\u00e1m \u0111\u00f4ng c\u00e0ng d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng: th\u00eam m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0 th\u00eam m\u1ed9t b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho th\u1ea5y c\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111ang x\u1ea3y ra. V\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft bao tr\u00f9m l\u00ean t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft ch\u1eafc \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec di\u1ec5n ra th\u00ec t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n h\u1ebft n\u00ean b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng g\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c \u0111ang l\u00e0m. T \u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn trong s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y \u0111\u00fang th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a. T \u00f3m l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1m \u0111\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng th\u00f4ng minh, th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng \u0111i theo c\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 v\u1ebb gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 s\u1ef1 b\u01b0\u1edbng b\u1ec9nh gi\u1eefa nh\u01b0ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngang h\u00e0ng. N\u1ebfu c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebft nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n h\u1ea1n (r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady), t\u1ea1i sao b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng l\u1eafng nghe h\u1ecd? Nh\u01b0ng m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, n\u1ebfu t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 a dua theo nhau th\u00ec l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00f4ng minh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c? III Khi tham gia gi\u1ea3i Super Bowl XXXVI, \u0111\u1ed9i St. Louis Rams \u0111\u00e3 h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed9i New England Patriots l\u00e0 14 \u0111i\u1ec3m. \u0110\u1ed9i Rams c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t","trong nh\u1eefng l\u1ed1i t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed Li\u00ean \u0111o\u00e0n B\u00f3ng \u0111\u00e1 qu\u1ed1c gia M\u1ef9 NFL, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u Li\u00ean \u0111o\u00e0n theo 18 ti\u00eau ch\u00ed th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 v\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00ean c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 s\u1ed1 503-273 trong m\u00f9a gi\u1ea3i h\u1eb1ng n\u0103m. Chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u1ecd d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean. Gi\u1eefa hi\u1ec7p m\u1ed9t, \u0111\u1ed9i Rams \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean trong tr\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea5u, di chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb v\u1ea1ch 20-yard s\u00e2n m\u00ecnh sang v\u1ea1ch 32-yard b\u00ean s\u00e2n Patriots. \u0110\u1ebfn l\u1ea7n t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n c\u00e1ch 3 yard l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t first down, hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9i St. Louis l\u00e0 \u00f4ng Mike Martz \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a tr\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea5u. T hay v\u00ec l\u1ea5y th\u00eam l\u01b0\u1ee3t, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh cho c\u1ea7u th\u1ee7 s\u00fat ph\u1ea1t Jeff Wilkins v\u00e0o s\u00e2n, c\u1ea7u th\u1ee7 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u00fat th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung tuy\u1ebfn, n\u00e2ng t\u1ef7 s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Rams l\u00ean 3-0. S\u00e1u ph\u00fat sau, khi m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9i Rams b\u1ecb ch\u1eb7n \u1edf v\u1ea1ch 34-yard, Martz l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1. Khi \u0111\u1ed9i St. Louis \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n l\u1ea5n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam 5 yard n\u1eefa l\u00e0 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfp m\u1ed9t first down n\u1eefa, Martz l\u1ea1i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o s\u00e2n m\u1ed9t ch\u00e2n s\u00fat v\u00e0 Rams r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi s\u00e2n, ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c d\u1eabn 3-0. T heo c\u00e1c ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n c\u1ee7a NFL, th\u00ec nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Martz r\u1ea5t \u0111\u00fang. Khi ph\u1ea3i l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn m\u1ed9t b\u00e0n th\u1eafng field goal ti\u1ec1m","n\u0103ng v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t first down ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng, th\u00ec c\u00e1c hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean trong NFL ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn field goal. C\u00e1ch ngh\u0129 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd ghi \u0111i\u1ec3m khi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i (Ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd th\u1ea5y ngay t\u1ea1i sao \\\"tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng\\\" kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 \\\"tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 t\u1eadp th\u1ec3\\\".). Nh\u01b0ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Martz c\u00f3 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1ch ngh\u0129 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00fang v\u1eabn g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 sai ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n. Ho\u1eb7c \u00edt nh\u1ea5t, c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a David Romer c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3. Romer l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc \u1edf Berkeley, ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0i n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u1ea3i t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c xem chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c fourth-down t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 g\u00ec. Romer quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn hai d\u1ea1ng bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c nhau c\u1ee7a v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u00f3. T h\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, \u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n bi\u1ebft khi n\u00e0o th\u00ec \u0111\u1ea1t first down c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a h\u01a1n l\u00e0 c\u00fa \u0111\u00e1 b\u1ed5ng hay s\u00fat m\u1ed9t qu\u1ea3 field goal. V\u00e0 th\u1ee9 hai, \u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n bi\u1ebft khi n\u00e0o, m\u1ed9t khi b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 \u1edf trong v\u1ea1ch 9.14 m c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t touchdown t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n l\u00e0 s\u00fat m\u1ed9t qu\u1ea3 field gom. S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 l\u1eadp tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng, Romer \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1eebng tr\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea5u - t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00f3 700 tr\u1eadn - t\u1eeb m\u00f9a \u0111i NFL 1998, 1999 v\u00e0 2000. Khi th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n xong, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a first down \u1edf m\u1ed7i v\u1ecb tr\u00ed tr\u00ean s\u00e2n. M\u1ed9t fitst down \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eeb v\u1ea1ch 20 c\u1ee7a s\u00e2n m\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh ch\u01b0a t\u1edbi n\u1eeda \u0111i\u1ec3m - ngh\u0129a l\u00e0, n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9i b\u00f3ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb v\u1ea1ch 20 c\u1ee7a s\u00e2n m\u00ecnh ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c first down 14 l\u1ea7n th\u00ec m\u1edbi ghi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t touchdown. M\u1ed9t first","down \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u1edf trung tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh 2 \u0111i\u1ec3m. M\u1ed9t first down \u1edf v\u1ea1ch 30-yard c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 3 \u0111i\u1ec3m. C\u1ee9 t h\u1ebf. Sau \u0111\u00f3, Romer t\u00ednh t\u1ea7n s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9i l\u1ea5y first down trong l\u1ea7n t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 m\u00e0 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng l\u00e0 bao nhi\u00eau. N\u00f3i kh\u00e1c \u0111i, n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n l\u1ea5n 3 yard l\u00e0 ch\u1ea1m v\u1ea1ch 31-yard c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u00ec Romer c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u1eafc b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 mu\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau first down hay kh\u00f4ng. \u00d4ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n qu\u1ea3 field goal th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng hay kh\u00f4ng. T \u1eeb \u0111\u00f3, so s\u00e1nh hai \u0111\u1ed9i ch\u01a1i l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n: n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t first down \u1edf v\u1ea1ch 28 yard c\u1ee7a ph\u00eda \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh 3 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 60% c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t first down, th\u00ec gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb mong \u0111\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c theo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau n\u00e0y l\u00e0 1.8 \u0111i\u1ec3m. M\u1ed9t n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n field goal t\u1eeb \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng 31-yard, ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u00e0 th\u00f4i. V\u00ec th\u1ebf Mike Martz \u0111\u00e1ng ra n\u00ean l\u1ea5y th\u00eam l\u01b0\u1ee3t th\u00ec h\u01a1n. C\u00e1i hay trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Romer l\u00e0 \u1edf ch\u1ed7 \u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecf s\u00f3t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0o c\u1ea3. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n th\u1eed m\u1ed9t qu\u1ea3 field goal \u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng 52-yard, th\u00ec v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 \u1edf 3 \u0111i\u1ec3m ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng m\u00e0 b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. B\u1ea1n c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd thay th\u1ebf b\u1ea1n \u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng 31 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Romer c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft bao nhi\u00eau \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 c\u01a1 m\u1ea5t. N\u00f3i kh\u00e1c \u0111i, m\u1ecdi h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u nh\u01b0 nhau c\u1ea3.","K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Romer, theo ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n c\u1ee7a NFL, qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1ng gi\u1eadt m\u00ecnh. \u00d4ng cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 l\u1ebd c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9i n\u00ean l\u1ea5y th\u00eam l\u01b0\u1ee3t trong l\u1ea7n t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9 t\u01b0. T r\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 l\u1ea7n n\u00e0o m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9i b\u00f3ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi l\u1ea7n t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1ch 3 yard ho\u1eb7c \u00edt h\u01a1n th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t first down th\u00ec Romer \u0111\u1ec1u khuy\u00ean h\u1ecd l\u00e0 n\u00ean ch\u1ecdn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau n\u00e0y v\u00e0 \u1edf v\u1ecb tr\u00ed gi\u1eefa khu trung tuy\u1ebfn v\u00e0 v\u1ea1ch 30- yard v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda b\u00ean ph\u1ea3i - v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9i Rams khi Martz \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh - Romer ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9i b\u00f3ng th\u1eadm ch\u00ed n\u00ean t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n. T rong khi \u0111\u00f3, trong ph\u1ea1m vi v\u1ea1ch 5-yard c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, bao gi\u1edd c\u0169ng n\u00ean ch\u1ecdn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau touchdown. Nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Romer l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn tho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00ec g\u00e2y ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean nh\u01b0ng r\u1ed3i b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd ta th\u1ea5y n\u00f3 hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 n\u00e0o tin n\u1ed5i. H\u00e3y h\u00ecnh dung l\u1ea7n t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n tr\u00ean v\u1ea1ch 2-yard c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng. B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t c\u00fa field goal, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i cho \u0111\u1ed9i b\u1ea1n ba \u0111i\u1ec3m, ho\u1eb7c b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecdn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau touchdown nh\u01b0ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 43% m\u00e0 th\u00f4i. L\u00fac b\u1ea5y gi\u1edd, n\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 43% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ghi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 7 \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u00ec c\u00f3 h\u01a1n g\u00ec vi\u1ec7c ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn ghi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 3 \u0111i\u1ec3m an to\u00e0n? C\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a hai l\u1ed1i ch\u01a1i n\u00e0y ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n nh\u01b0 nhau. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i ngh\u0129 \u0111\u1ebfn. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi touchdown th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh th\u00ec \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n v\u1eabn s\u1ebd b\u1ecb c\u1ea7m ch\u00e2n tr\u00ean v\u1ea1ch 2- yard c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. V\u1eady th\u00ec h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4n ngoan l\u00e0 h\u00e3y theo","\u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau n\u00e0y. Hay h\u00e3y th\u1eed xem tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p khi \u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung tuy\u1ebfn, ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n l\u1ea5n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 3 yard l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t first down. S\u1ebd c\u00f3 50% th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 50% th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. V\u00ec th\u1ebf ch\u00fang th\u00e0nh v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 (v\u00ec d\u00f9 g\u00ec \u0111i n\u1eefa, m\u1ed9t trong hai \u0111\u1ed9i s\u1ebd c\u00f3 b\u00f3ng t\u1ea1i c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t v\u1ecb tr\u00ed tr\u00ean s\u00e2n thi \u0111\u1ea5u). Nh\u01b0ng k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 khi th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u1ea5n s\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3ng 6 yard, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 gi\u00fap cho b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf h\u01a1n h\u1eb3n \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xem l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 50% th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng r\u1ed3i. V\u00ec th\u1ebf, m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa, t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u1eabn c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a. Hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 Romer \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng ngh\u0129 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang, trong \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y. Nh\u1eefng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea5y trung b\u00ecnh d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u1ea3 li\u00ean \u0111o\u00e0n n\u00f3i chung, do \u0111\u00f3, t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ed9i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u1edf l\u1ea7n t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9 t\u01b0. Ngay c\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 b\u00e1c b\u1ecf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Romer: c\u00e1c hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean v\u1ed1n lu\u00f4n th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng qu\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng. V\u1ec1 ph\u1ea7n Mike Martz, hai quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng trong gi\u1ea3i Super Bowl l\u00e0 hai quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00e1c m\u00e0 \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng \u0111\u01b0a ra. T heo t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Romer, n\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1ch 9-yard l\u00e0 ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ea1ch 31- yard c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u00ec t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea5y th\u00eam l\u01b0\u1ee3t. \u0110\u1ea5y l\u00e0 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9i","trung b\u00ecnh. C\u00f2n v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9i thi\u00ean v\u1ec1 l\u1ed1i ch\u01a1i t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 Rams, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c th\u00eam l\u01b0\u1ee3t c\u00f3 l\u1ebd cao h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u. V\u00e0 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t hai quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 chung cu\u1ed9c nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean l\u1eafm khi \u0111\u1ed9i Rams thua t\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3i Super Bowl. T uy nhi\u00ean, Martz kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u1ebb loi. T heo quan s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a Romer trong t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 t\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7p m\u1ed9t trong ba m\u00f9a gi\u1ea3i m\u00e0 \u00f4ng theo d\u00f5i, c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ebfn 1.100 tr\u1eadn m\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9i thi \u0111\u1ea5u \u0111\u00e1ng ra ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecdn vi\u1ec7c th\u00eam l\u01b0\u1ee3t t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng. Nh\u01b0ng thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ebfn 992 tr\u1eadn, h\u1ecd ch\u1ecdn gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p s\u00fat b\u00f3ng. C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1eb7t ra \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y l\u00e0: T \u1ea1i sao? C\u00e1c hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean, x\u00e9t cho c\u00f9ng, \u0111\u1ec1u mu\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ed9i m\u00ecnh th\u1eafng tr\u1eadn. H\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia. H\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec1u khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi trong c\u00e1ch thi \u0111\u1ea5u. V\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Romer r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c. T h\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng v\u00ec sao trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a NFL, kh\u00f4ng hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean n\u00e0o c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt n\u00e0y? M\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 bi\u1ec7n h\u1ed9 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng cho h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean n\u00e0y l\u00e0 l\u00fd l\u1ebd cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ea7u \u00f3c h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng b\u1ed9 m\u00e1y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eadp tr\u00ecnh linh \u0111\u1ed9ng. Nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3n bi\u1ec7n n\u00e0y h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 ch\u1eb3ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a. B\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u l\u1ea1c b\u1ed9 n\u00e0o trong li\u00ean \u0111o\u00e0n","NFL \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thu\u00ea m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u1ebb tu\u1ed5i th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch y nh\u01b0 Romer \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m (T h\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 th\u00ec b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c c\u00e2u l\u1ea1c b\u1ed9 kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3... b\u00ed \u1ea9n.). Quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, \u0111\u00e2u c\u1ee9 ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nhau, gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft theo c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u00ec s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ec1u ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u1ed1t. T h\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, ch\u00fang ta th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn l\u00e0 trong m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ea1nh tranh, n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta ph\u1ea3i b\u1ecf ra c\u1ea3 ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 - tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ghi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1ed1i \u0111a - th\u00ec ch\u00ed \u00edt m\u1ed9t trong s\u1ed1 h\u1ecd cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd t\u00ecm ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n hay, d\u00f9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng tr\u1ef1c gi\u00e1c m\u00e0 th\u00f4i. Song, ngay c\u1ea3 trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y, kh\u00f4ng hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean n\u00e0o trong li\u00ean \u0111o\u00e0n NFL quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0m m\u1ecdi vi\u1ec7c kh\u00e1c \u0111i. T \u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean cho th\u1ea5y Romer \u0111\u00e3 sai, r\u1eb1ng \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf s\u00f3t m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh m\u00e1y t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft. B\u00f3ng \u0111\u00e1 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 b\u1edfi v\u00ec c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn nhau v\u00e0 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng l\u1ed1i ch\u01a1i c\u1ee7a nhau n\u00ean kh\u00f3 m\u00e0 ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, s\u1ef1 h\u01b0ng ph\u1ea5n v\u00e0 v\u1eadn may c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9i. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e2u ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 x\u1eed l\u00fd. \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Romer \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi l\u1ed1i ch\u01a1i t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n \u1edf l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u, \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i h\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea. \u0110\u1ed9i n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n th\u00ec","th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 \u01b0u th\u1ebf c\u1ea1nh tranh h\u01a1n. T h\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng v\u00ec sao kh\u00f4ng ai hi\u1ec3u ra \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y? C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi t\u00f4i ngh\u0129, c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u1eefng ch\u1ee9ng c\u1edb c\u1ee7a x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a suy ngh\u0129 t\u1eadp th\u1ec3. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u00e0 c\u0169ng quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0: vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9i th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean kh\u00f4ng c\u1ed1 l\u1ea5y th\u00eam l\u01b0\u1ee3t \u1edf l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u00e2n l\u00fd c\u1ed1t y\u1ebfu trong b\u00f3ng \u0111\u00e1 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p. Khi h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ee9ng c\u1edb x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n bi\u1ec7n th\u00ec \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c nh\u01b0 n\u00f3 \u0111ang l\u00e0 th\u1ebf d\u1ec5 h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c h\u00ecnh dung ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00e1c \u0111i nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. N\u1ebfu ch\u1eb3ng c\u00f3 ai l\u1ea5y th\u00eam l\u01b0\u1ee3t t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng th\u00ec h\u1eb3n l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c \u1ea5y ch\u1eb3ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a g\u00ec. \u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ea1i l\u00ean b\u1edfi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf r\u1eb1ng b\u00f3ng \u0111\u00e1 - nh\u01b0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c m\u00f4n th\u1ec3 thao chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p - l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 m\u00f4n r\u1ea5t n\u1eb7ng t\u00ednh b\u00e8 ph\u00e1i v\u00e0 th\u00e0nh ki\u1ebfn. T h\u1eadt v\u1eady, \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 c\u00e1ch t\u00e2n ch\u00ednh trong m\u00f4n th\u1ec3 thao n\u00e0y - trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 c\u1ea3 Martz - nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea, tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i n\u00e0y tr\u1edf n\u00ean d\u1ecb \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, s\u1ef1 m\u1ea1o hi\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c nhau l\u00e0 m\u1ea5y. C\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 m\u00f4n th\u1ec3 thao n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi tri\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 dung n\u1ea1p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00fang khi ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t. Hay c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i, nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m m\u00e0 c\u00e1c hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean m\u1eafc ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 li\u00ean \u0111\u1edbi","l\u1eabn nhau: t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t h\u01b0\u1edbng. B\u1ea3n th\u00e2n Romer c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i h\u01a1i kh\u00e1c, c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u00edch an to\u00e0n c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi. L\u1ea5y th\u00eam l\u01b0\u1ee3t khi ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1ch 2 yard l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t first down c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt nh\u01b0ng x\u00e9t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u00ec l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng. Suy cho c\u00f9ng, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Romer mu\u1ed1n n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9i b\u00f3ng c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn 50% khi \u1edf v\u1ea1ch 10 yard c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng. R\u1ed1t cu\u1ed9c, \u0111\u00f3 v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00e0nh th\u1eafng l\u1ee3i. Nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00edch an to\u00e0n th\u00ec chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng d\u1ec5 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn. T \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1 b\u1ed5ng trong l\u1ea7n t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 ch\u1eb3ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a g\u00ec nh\u01b0ng \u00edt nh\u1ea5t th\u00ec n\u00f3 c\u0169ng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tai h\u1ecda. S\u1ef1 l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u00edch an to\u00e0n c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a h\u01a1n n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n ngh\u0129 v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c m\u00e0 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y cho c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00e1c hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean trong NFL bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng theo c\u00e1ch b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7, m\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngang h\u00e0ng c\u00f9ng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng theo chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ed1ng nhau, th\u00ec kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edbi kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi n\u00f3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn h\u01a1n, d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn (nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean NFL). T rong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn g\u1eafn b\u00f3 v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e1m \u0111\u00f4ng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i th\u1ea5p, kh\u00f4ng t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi v\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1","th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i cao, s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n ch\u1ec9 mang \u00fd ngh\u0129a t\u00ecnh c\u1ea3m, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n mang \u00fd ngh\u0129a chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f4i khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 li\u00ean k\u1ebft. C\u0169ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e0n tr\u00e2u t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi nhau khi \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u01b0 t\u1eed, c\u00e1c hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n vi\u00ean b\u00f3ng \u0111\u00e1, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ti\u1ec1n b\u1ea1c v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 an to\u00e0n trong nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn. S\u1ef1 li\u00ean k\u1ebft g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng ai c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y m\u1ea5t an to\u00e0n khi mua c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a IBM. C\u00f3 m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kinh \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 li\u00ean k\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c David Scharfstein v\u00e0 Jeremy Stein th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, hai \u00f4ng quan s\u00e1t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nhau (mutual fund manager) c\u00f9ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n theo chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ed1ng nhau v\u00e0 li\u00ean k\u1ebft theo nh\u1eefng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 nhau. S\u1ef1 b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ti\u1ec1n b\u1ea1c lu\u00f4n r\u1ea5t ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p. L\u00fd do duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ti\u1ec1n b\u1ea1c t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c h\u1ecd tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111a ph\u1ea7n, h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. V\u00e0 s\u1ef1 li\u00ean k\u1ebft ch\u1ec9 khi\u1ebfn cho c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n c\u00e0ng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n, v\u00ec c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ti\u1ec1n b\u1ea1c \u0111ang b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u00e0 h\u1ecd cho l\u00e0 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n. T uy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng g\u00ec Stharfstein v\u00e0 Stein nh\u1eadn ra l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nhau th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m hai vi\u1ec7c: \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00f4n ngoan v\u00e0 thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111ang b\u1ecf ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd c\u0169ng \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f4n ngoan. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi","b\u1ecf ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00f3 m\u00e0 bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nhau c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch kh\u00f4n ngoan hay kh\u00f4ng. T \u00f3m l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o l\u00e0 kh\u00f4n ngoan, th\u00ec b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00f3. B\u00e2y gi\u1edd, r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang ta bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb cho k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t \u1edf b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 qu\u00fd n\u00e0o trong n\u0103m, hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cao h\u01a1n ho\u1eb7c th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n hay ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nhau l\u00e0 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi \u01b0? H\u00e3y xem phong c\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngang h\u00e0ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. N\u1ebfu nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng theo chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 h\u1ecd - \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n gi\u1ed1ng nhau ph\u00e2n b\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n cho c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n - th\u00ec \u00edt nh\u1ea5t nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u0169ng bi\u1ebft h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng ta kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 phi l\u00fd. \u0110\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0: khi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c ngang nhau, ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0o khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch \u0111\u00e1m \u0111\u00f4ng \u0111i theo m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1eb3n l\u1ea1i r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb coi l\u00e0 \u0111i\u00ean kh\u00f9ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1eb7t th\u00e0nh v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 l\u00f2ng ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn, v\u00ec s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1t v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed1t r\u1ed1t cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1."]